Tournaments and Fold Equity

i was playing in an online tournament the other day (a tiny $10 400-person tourney) and played a hand that gives a very interesting demonstration of how tournaments vary from cash games and the concept of ‘fold equity’.

so what is fold equity? it’s a concept that represents extra value that you have in your hand because the opponent might fold. so let’s say that your hand is 50-50 against another player’s. if you put pressure on your opponent by betting or raising, your hand gains additional equity because the other player may fold and, if he folds, you have 100% equity of the pot.

so the hand: i was in the cut-off with AsKs, with the blinds at 100-200. a player in early position, who had about 3100 chips, moved in immediately, a large overbet. he had done this a few times in the past couple of orbits, but he also hadn’t played any hands outside of those and no one had called him. i think the mistake a lot of players make is thinking, “well AK is an awesome hand. i should totally call here,” without thinking through the math and mechanics of the actual play.

here’s where tournament strategy varies wildly from cash games. i had a lot of chips at the time, but there were still around 250 players left in the tournament: winning the pot would increase my chances of winning the tournament imperceptibly. losing the pot could be pretty damaging. given the range of hands that he could possibly have:

• AA or KK: i’m screwed
• QQ or smaller: coin-flip
• two undercards: i’m only 5:3 to win
• dominated hand (AQ, KQ, etc.): i’m 3:1

i think when you think through those equities, it’s clear the right decision at this point of the tournament, with little information on the player, is to fold, which is what i ended up doing.

but here’s where the concept of fold equity comes in. let’s say that the villain had only raised to about 700 instead. now the hand can probably play out very differently. first of all, he has stuck 700 into the pot (making 1000 chips in there), but he still has 2400 left, which is a reasonable amount of chips to fold with (he’s not entirely pot-committed yet). if i move in on him, i have this extra “equity” or value in the hand, which is: he might fold.

if he has a hand like 88 or 99, he could very reasonably fold here. if he has two undercards, he will probably fold. those are both reasonably positive outcomes because i pick up 1000 without having to take a 50-50 or 5-3 situation.

the point isn’t that the correct decision is to move-in in such a situation, it’s just that by being the one to push (as opposed to the one to call) is advantageous because you have this extra ‘fold equity’.