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Matt Maiocco, on his blog, writes that, based mostly on John York’s postgame demeanor, he thinks Mike Nolan is on his way out as the 49ers coach. Given how close Maiocco is to the team and how careful he usually is with his observations, I think it’s worth believing for now. My guess is it’s 50-50 right now. We’ll find out more tomorrow.

There are a couple of different ways to look at Nolan’s (first?) three years here with the team.

One is in pure numbers. Pretty simple: no winning season and one of the worst offenses in NFL history this season. He has failed from the ‘pure numbers’ perspective. Conventional wisdom would say, "Give a coach the #1 pick in the draft and three years, and he should be able to put something better than that together." I don’t believe that’s entirely fair though. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look much better from the other side of the coin.

The other way to look at it is from the hazy, intangible world of ‘progress’. 12 months ago, after a really surprising 7-9 season that showered optimism on everyone around the Niners, Nolan seemed on the road to being a long-time San Francisco coach. Things looked so good that BY, clearly on his last legs, came back for another season, no doubt because he was looking for one last playoff run. 16 games later? A very different world.

A few weeks ago, Stoops was out here from Chicago for Big Game weekend. The two of us jetted over to Old Pro in the morning on Sunday to camp out for some good seats to watch the morning NFL games. As we were chatting about our respective teams, I stopped myself in mid-thought at one point and realized I was spending a good five minutes touting the virtues of our (surely soon-to-be) Pro Bowl punter.

Now don’t get me wrong, Andy Lee is a fucking awesome punter. The guy is unbelievable. He set an NFL record this year for highest net punting average, becoming the first punter to ever finish a season with a ‘net’ of 40+ yards. And… the fact that I was actively watching his punt stats today (to make sure he stayed over 40 yards) is a clear sign of how (I hate to say it) pitiful my Niners have become. After all, I was actively extolling the virtues of the player on our team responsible for essentially surrendering to the opposition.

So you had the poor on-field play – I honestly think if Nolan’s only transgression was the 5-11 record, he would still have support, at least from his management. But I think, if he is fired tomorrow, the last straw will have been his public soap opera-like feud with his "star" quarterback. I won’t bore anyone recounting that fiasco, but I will say that I come down on the side of Nolan (broadly-speaking), if I have to pick a side. I think Smith was childish and acted like a whiny baby. I think he showed a tremendous lack of mental fortitude. I think he was wrong. And I don’t think he will ever be a quality starting quarterback in the NFL.

But Nolan was wrong too. He was wrong to go to bat for Smith in drafting him. But worse, he was wrong to not accomplish this simple mantra – keep in-team disagreements in-house. Not entirely his fault, but he wasn’t blameless either. In poker terms, Nolan took a bad beat, but he should have played the entire hand in a different way.

So if it is goodbye, Mike Nolan, then I hope you find yourself back as a head coach somewhere else someday. I always thought you were a good guy, a great guy even. But Steve Mariucci would be running out of fingers to fit his Super Bowl rings if being a good guy meant a lot as an NFL head coach. It’s about getting the most out of your players in performing towards a common goal.

So Mike, under that lens, I can see why you might be on the way out.

And, if you are back next year, please get a real offensive coordinator. This was a bit too painful.