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I don’t spend a lot of time writing about politics here, but I had an interesting insight while driving home today to watch the debate that fits pretty well on this blog: “Holy crap, John McCain just tried to pull a Matt Doherty on Barack Obama, with this crazy ‘halt the campaign and debate‘ thing.”

The strategy refers to a Doherty approach used in a 60-48 loss to Duke on March 8, 2002. Now, as you read this post and begin to wonder how in the WORLD I could remember some innocuous game from the worst season for North Carolina in the last 30+ years, just remember that 1) I’ve been a diehard UNC fan the last 15+ years, 2) I watch a LOT of basketball, and 3) I have a special dislike of Matt Doherty. Now, on to the show:

First, a couple of assumptions we’ll use to equate McCain to a particular Doherty strategy (these are necessary so that Chris Lin or other Republican-leaning people are still willing to read):

1. Assume that McCain is seeing the same polls that fivethirtyeight.com and other sites are reporting (i.e. slight slide relative to Obama).
2. Assume that, as a politician, McCain (like Obama and others) is morally capable of using the financial crisis as a prop in a particular tactic to win the election.

If you’re not going to just sing along with those assumptions for fun, then stop reading now.

In 2002, Doherty was busy driving the North Carolina program into the ground. Now, that’s not a material part of the story and in no way am I saying that John McCain is getting ready to lead this country into a hell hole which will have us aching for the days of George W Bush (read into that what you will).

Anyhow, the North Carolina team was so lacking in talent for a program of such prestige, that even Doherty knew the team was hosed. It turned out to be the season that broke UNC’s seemingly infinite run of NCAA tournament appearances, though we didn’t know it at the time. On the day of the game, the only hope for making the tournament was to somehow triumph in the ACC tournament and win the automatic bid. It was with that backdrop that UNC met hated rival Duke (#3 in the country) in the Quarterfinals and Doherty choose to coin (in my mind) ‘pulling a Doherty’.

Knowing that the Duke team was “ahead in the polls” so to speak, Doherty had his players slow the game down to the point of pain. And I’m not talking about a Bo Ryan-like strategy where you play staunch defense and then come down the court to swing the ball 90 times until you get a layup. I’m talking about Adam Boone bringing the ball across halfcourt and then standing still dribbling until the shot clock was down to 10 seconds before even making a single move.

It’s impossible to convey the outrageous-ness of the strategy, because the final score doesn’t represent the extent of how crazy it was. Duke would run down, score a quick bucket, and then Carolina would eat up 35 seconds (and hopefully get a bucket). Usually when two teams score at such a low pace, it’s because of tough defenses holding each other to poor shooting. But I’d venture to guess Duke shot something like 55% in the game (unfortunately, ESPN has lost the box score to verify). Remember, Duke was one of the more explosive NCAA teams of the past 20 years. They had put up 93 and 87 points in the first two meetings against Carolina that season.

It was awful. And as a North Carolina fan, it was unwatchable.

But it was also some sort of perverted genius. Doherty himself put it best after the game:

“You don’t want to have to play that way, but it was the only chance we had to win,” said Doherty, who had clearly been crying in the locker room.

“We worked on it and I went to Jason (Capel) and said this is the way we need to play to try to beat Duke and he said, `Let’s do it. I’m with you.’ And we thought we were going to win.”

(Side note: this type of garbage is why I try to block out the Matt Doherty years in my mind)

He was right, it really was the only possible way for Carolina to win. They had to shorten the game up, possessions-wise, to the point where the importance of every single individual possession was heightened. Where each shot, instead of being worth a tiny fraction of the game, was worth relatively double (or triple). And then Carolina just had to play hard and hope – hope for a slip-up that would be magnified in import due to the shortened game. It’s a common practice by basketball and football teams (you see 3 or 4 teams do it to Peyton Manning and the Colts every year), but I vividly remember the Doherty game because of how explicit it was.

In essence, that’s what I think McCain was trying to accomplish this week. He saw an opportunity to shorten the game up. To magnify the impact of the debate and the last few weeks of the election by pushing things out. Nevermind that there was no fucking way he would actually be able to make a substantive difference (as he proved tonight in the debate, he and Obama both do not have depth of understanding on the economic crisis). With foreign policy (McCain’s clear advantage) being the focus of the first debate, he wanted to shorten its gap to Election Day as much as possible.

It was a crazy strategy, almost as crazy as Matt Doherty trying to turn a 40-minute game into a 25-minute one, but who knows… it could have worked.

Last week was pretty bittersweet. The good news was the Niners stomped out Detroit (and I was there to witness it). The bad news was I got punted out of my $100 Survivor League (under what planet does New England get destroyed by 5 Ronnie Brown TD’s?) and then got trounced in my picks.

Not much more to say – here’s hoping it goes better this week.

Last Week: 6-10 (ugh)
Overall Season Results: 23-24-0

Sunday

DEN (-9) at KC
Let’s see, Denver’ll score 35+. Kansas City hasn’t scored 20 in a game yet.
Pick: DEN

CLE (+3.5) at CIN
Here’s hoping it’s another “Last team with the ball wins” game. Cincinnati looked good last week, surprisingly. I think they get it together first.
Pick: CIN

HOU (+7) at JAX
Jacksonville’s O-line is getting healthy at the right time and you KNOW they don’t want to go 1-3.
Pick: JAX

ARI (+1.5) at NYJ
One of these weeks, Favre’s going to get comfortable, but he still looked bad last week.
Pick: ARI

SFO (+5) at NO
Heard Martz on the radio today and he seemed pretty confident in our ability to move the ball on NO, particularly against their secondary. I’m in.
Pick: SFO

ATL (+7) at CAR
Still not quite sure what to make of this Carolina team, but they should be able to run well to set up the pass in this matchup. They were one bad turnover from having full control of that game last week.
Pick: CAR

MIN (+3) at TEN
Tennessee’s defense is beastly against the run and, lo and behold, Minnesota needs to run to be successful.
Pick: TEN

GB (+1.5) at TB
Bounce-back game for Green Bay, but they need to stop the run. The loss of Al Harris can’t hurt them that much against Brian Griese, can it?
Pick: GB

BUF (-8) at STL
St. Louis decided to do the chic thing, by benching their QB and cutting their most talented CB. Not looking pretty out there.
Pick: BUF

SD (-7.5) at OAK
San Diego secondary playing better, so I’m imagining 8 men in the box a lot. If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, do so… unless they’re playing the Raiders.
Pick: SD

WAS (+11) at DAL
Spreads like this are always a bit tricky, after all, Dallas could dominate a game and end up winning by ten. But this one’s in Dallas, fierce rivalry, I don’t see Dallas getting off the gas.
Pick: DAL

PHI (-3) at CHI
Westbrook should be out, so the Eagles will probably go pass-heavy. The luster of Chicago’s win over a short-handed Indy has being rusted over with back-to-back losses.
Pick: PHI

Monday

BAL (-5.5) at PIT
Injuries say BAL will have a field day on the ground, but I’m imagining a low-scoring close game.
Pick: PIT

The volatility of NFL outcomes continues to show itself. By my count, last week I could have very easily gone 12-3 and just as easily gone 6-9.

For instance, at one point late in the second half last week, Green Bay was actually down 24-25. If Rodgers doesn’t complete a couple of big throws, they don’t pull back ahead and Kitna doesn’t end up throwing several really awful interceptions that get run back.

The score of that game interestingly influences oddsmakers a lot, even though for 3+ quarters the teams were even. This week, we see Detroit getting 4 points from a team whose star receiver is old as shit and Green Bay only getting 3 points against the team that has looked like one of the best in the NFL.

Crazy stuff.

Last Week: 9-6
Overall Season Results: 17-14-0

Sunday

KC (+5.5) at ATL
Just a really un-watchable matchup. Atlanta should have an easy time running the ball.
Pick: ATL

OAK (+9) at BUF
A bit weary of McFadden/Bush going off, but I’ll take Buffalo for the third straight week.
Pick: BUF

HOU (+4.5) at TEN
With VY, Tennessee was always playing to the level of its opponent. Collins seems less likely to make ridiculous mistakes. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Pick: TEN

CIN (+13) at NYG
Just feels like too many points. After all, that NYG-STL game was not quite as lopsided as it ended up.
Pick: CIN

ARI (+3) at WAS
Campbell and Warner both looked really good last week, but one of them was playing the Miami Dolphins.
Pick: WAS

MIA (+12.5) at NWE
Miami’s whole defense is pretty porous. New England should be able to run this week. And another practice week for Cassel to get in tune with the receivers.
Pick: NWE

TB (+3) at CHI
I just don’t think Tampa’s going to be able to run and I don’t see how Griese can win this game for them.
Pick: CHI

CAR (+3.5) at MIN
Plugging in Gus Frerotte can’t suddenly make you a favorite, can it? Steve Smith is back, to boot.
Pick: CAR

STL (+9.5) at SEA
Oddsmakers keep loving Seattle, but they still don’t have any receivers.
Pick: STL

DET (+4) at SFO
Things went horribly for SF last week and they still came out on top. Niners run D isn’t looking great, but Detroit hasn’t been great on the ground anyway.
Pick: SFO

NO (+5) at DEN
Cutler looks like he’s taking that leap, and New Orleans hasn’t played anyone this good yet.
Pick: DEN

PIT (+3.5) at PHI
Fantastic matchup, if I wasn’t going to the Niners game, I’d absolutely find a place to watch this. I do think Pittsburgh’ll be able to run the ball and control the clock.
Pick: PIT

JAX (+5) at IND
I’d really like to take the points, but I think the offensive line of JAX is just too beaten up to take advantage of Sanders being out.
Pick: IND

CLE (+2) at BAL
I think this is the week Cleveland gets back on track. They played well defensively last week, so should be able to hold Flacco and company down.
Pick: CLE

DAL (-3) at GB
Philly played fantastic last week… and ended up losing. Green Bay doesn’t feel nearly as good.
Pick: DAL

Monday

NYJ (+9) at SD
Rule No. 1: If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you take that opportunity.
Pick: NYJ

I think it was in 2004, when I had just finished college. I had (literally) zero dollars in my bank account just before I was starting my first job at Oracle. On top of that, I had a tidy sum in college loan debt staring me in the face. I knew nothing about houses, other than I wanted to buy one for myself some day. It was around then that a friend of mine mentioned that I should ‘buy a house now.’ I laughed and remarked that I had no money to put down, plus I hadn’t even started my job yet. The conversation went something like this:

Friend: “Why don’t you buy a house now? You’d just be throwing your money away renting.”
Jack: “What, you mean besides the fact that I don’t have any money?”
Friend: “Nah, you can get a no-money down mortgage. The interest rate’s not bad and you can just re-finance in a few years.”
Jack: (to myself) “I don’t know a whole lot, but that seems completely fucking absurd to me. Why would they loan me boatloads of money when I don’t have any?”

I never got a straight answer to that question then, but it’s clear now what kinds of shenanigans were going on.

As a single mid-20’s male, with no real life commitments, who has been worriedly following this whole crisis, the main emotion running through my head (besides ‘concern’) is, surprisingly, anger. It’s the kind of anger that comes from the feeling of being cheated and it’s directed out between the immoral executives and financial institutions who dealt with these irresponsible mortgages, the idiotic/naive/gullible Americans who decided on taking these outrageous loans that they couldn’t afford, and to a certain extent the government regulators who I feel like should have been doing something about this earlier.

Basically, it’s anger that the entire world economy and American taxpayers (including myself) will get to bear the pain that should, frankly, be felt by these people alone. I’ll admit it, I haven’t even considered stopping to feel sorry for anyone from Lehman or any of the other financial institutions that have collapsed (or laid people off). It’s awful for me to say it, but it’s true. It’s particularly true when they have, on average, been pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, much of it due to these types of instruments. I don’t feel sorry for them for a single moment. I hope some of them at least realize their responsibility in this whole thing.

And then today, as if sensing that it’s a great time to come along trolling for money, the big Detroit automakers went begging in Washington today. It just makes you cringe, doesn’t it? How about first you guys actually make some cars that customers want to purchase?

It’s all incredibly disturbing. Welcome to the new global economy.

Whew! So that was Week 1. After spending some time scouring through picks and hemming and hawwing, I ended up… 8-8.

That’s right, .500. Theoretically, I could have thrown darts and ended up with the same results – not exactly a stellar start to my season. If you extend that out to an entire season, I just lost money – serious money. Going .500 against Vegas is exactly what they want. They make a living on picking a spread so that people are split 50-50 on the bet. They like people going .500. They will take that all day.

Last week was largely an unpredictable set of games. Week 1 is generally like that. Of course, football in general is a sport with an incredible amount of variance. Small, individual plays make up a huge swing in results (due to the low number of scoring plays). Take these examples:

• Washington had a last-minute drive that easily could have swung the spread the other way.
• Pennington threw a ball into the Jets endzone for an interception on one of the last plays of the game. Miami still had downs if it was an incomplete pass.
• Tom Brady’s knee got taken out in the greatest moment for Sports Karma Believers all over the world.
• Jeff Garcia threw an interception on the would-be game-winning drive to end the game

And that’s just off the top of my head. If any of those individual plays went differently, you could almost bet on a complete swing of the win/loss against the spread. In other words, wild swings are the rule in picking NFL games.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall Season Results: 8-8-0

(One side note, I don’t EVER remember picking this many road teams in a week. Makes me a bit nervous.)

Week 2 Picks

Sunday

OAK (+3.5) at KC
When your head coach is distancing himself from his own defense, you could lose to a team as shitty/young as KC.
Pick: KC

TEN (+1.5) at CIN
After watching Cincinnati’s atrocious offensive line, it’s hard to really bet on them, especially against the Titans D.
Pick: TEN

IND (-2) at MIN
Indy and Peyton looked bad on Sunday, but I’d put that more on the solid Chicago secondary. Minnesota? 28th in pass defense last season.
Pick: IND

NO (PK) at WAS
Washington looked pretty poor last week and it seemed like NO may have figured out how to use Bush effectively.
Pick: NO

GB (-3) at DET
I’ve reversed field on Rodgers – he looked great on Monday. Very under control, made lots of good throws. I’m paying the “home underdog in division” philosophy no mind.
Pick: GB

CHI (+3) at Carolina
DeAngelo Williams looked like Jim Brown last Sunday, but he wasn’t facing the reinvigorated Bears D. I’m liking the Kyle Orton bandwagon.
Pick: CHI

NYG (-7) at STL
St. Louis looked really embarrassing on Sunday – no other way to say it. I think I’d pick NYG at -17.
Pick: NYG

BUF (+5.5) at JAX
Jacksonville’s down two offensive linemen and they still have no dependable receivers. I’ll (surprisingly) take the points.
Pick: BUF

ATL (+7.5) at TB
That is a lot of points to give a team that just ran for 300+ yards, even if it was against DET.
Pick: ATL

SFO (+7) at SEA
Seattle’s missing its top four WR’s and it’s top running back, so I’ll pick us one more time.
Pick: SFO

MIA (+7.0) at ARI
Kurt Warner is 35-2 lifetime when his wire-haired man-goblin wife isn’t in the stands*
Pick: ARI

NWE (+1.5) at NYJ
This seems like a good spot for NWE to get bushwhacked, but the Jets barely beat the Dolphins last week.
Pick: NWE

SD (-1.5) at DEN
I can’t believe I picked SD last week. Back in the day, I always had one golden rule: “If you have an opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you should always take that opportunity.”
Pick: DEN

PIT (-6) at CLE
Pittsburgh looked like the best AFC team last week. Cleveland looked “not ready for primetime.”
Pick: PIT

Monday

BAL (+4.5) at HOU (moved from Sunday)
I did a double-take when I read this line. I don’t think I saw anything from Houston last week that looked decent.
Pick: BAL

PHI (+7) at DAL
Two of the best-looking teams last weekend, but one of them was playing STL.
Pick: DAL

*=I made that up

2 comments

So every year, I spend an inordinate amount of time watching and commenting on NFL games. Like most NFL fans, I think (probably incorrectly) that I can do a better job picking winners and losers than the Vegas sportsbooks can.

Of course, the whole reason those sportsbooks continue to exist is that generally speaking the vast betting public does NOT do a better job picking winners and losers. In fact, it’s an incredibly lucrative business because for the general public to even break even, it needs to pick correctly 11/21 times.

Anyhow, this season I’ve decided to sack up and actually see how I do against the spread, in public. All season, I’ll post my weekly picks against a well-known Vegas sportsbook (MGM Mirage). I’ll pull the current point spreads a couple of days before the games start from vegasinsider.com, a fairly reputable site for such things. And then, every week, you can come back and see how I did (and laugh at me).

Here’s Week 1:

Thursday

WAS (+4) at NYG
Return to glory for the Super Bowl champs? No Osi, no problem.
Pick: NYG

Sunday

DET (-3) at ATL
Rookie QB starting in his first NFL game? There’s no way I’m picking that.
Pick: DET

SEA (+1) at BUF
I like the Buffalo Bills as a trendy pick for the Playoffs. I also love Trent Edwards.
Pick: BUF

NYJ (-3) at MIA
Game 1 of Brett Favre Era 2.0, but I’m not believing it.
Pick: MIA

KC (+16) at NE
No comment.
Pick: NE

TB (+3) at NO
Even though Jeff Garcia single-handedly ruined a Vegas weekend for me last year…
Pick: TB

STL (+7.5) at PHI
I like Philly this year, even against my old roommate.
Pick: PHI

HOU (+6.5) at PIT
Not really buying the Texans as a sleeper.
Pick: PIT

JAX (-3) at TEN
On the road for Jacksonville. Plus Jeff Fisher hates the Jaguars. I’ll take the points.
Pick: TEN

CIN (-1.5) at BAL
I just don’t really trust Cincinnati at all. On the road, in a divisional game…
Pick: BAL

CAR (+9) at SD
Remember the old days when Carolina was always a trendy pick to get to the Super Bowl?
Pick: SD

ARI (-3) at SF
The JTO/Martz Era is in full-effect. I think we’re going to win outright.
Pick: SF

DAL (-4.5) at CLE
I don’t even know what the over is on this game, but I’d take it.
Pick: DAL

CHI (+9.5) at IND
I have inside sources (Un-Pseudo Stoops) that say the Bears might be awful this year.
Pick: IND

Monday

MIN (+2.5) at GB
I saw Aaron Rodgers with my own eyes a few years ago – he is not Brett Favre.
Pick: MIN

DEN (-3) at OAK
I ended up drafting Jay Cutler in every fantasy league I’m in. HUGE season coming up.
Pick: DEN