NFL 2008 Picks: Week 2

Whew! So that was Week 1. After spending some time scouring through picks and hemming and hawwing, I ended up… 8-8.

That’s right, .500. Theoretically, I could have thrown darts and ended up with the same results - not exactly a stellar start to my season. If you extend that out to an entire season, I just lost money - serious money. Going .500 against Vegas is exactly what they want. They make a living on picking a spread so that people are split 50-50 on the bet. They like people going .500. They will take that all day.

Last week was largely an unpredictable set of games. Week 1 is generally like that. Of course, football in general is a sport with an incredible amount of variance. Small, individual plays make up a huge swing in results (due to the low number of scoring plays). Take these examples:

• Washington had a last-minute drive that easily could have swung the spread the other way.
• Pennington threw a ball into the Jets endzone for an interception on one of the last plays of the game. Miami still had downs if it was an incomplete pass.
• Tom Brady’s knee got taken out in the greatest moment for Sports Karma Believers all over the world.
• Jeff Garcia threw an interception on the would-be game-winning drive to end the game

And that’s just off the top of my head. If any of those individual plays went differently, you could almost bet on a complete swing of the win/loss against the spread. In other words, wild swings are the rule in picking NFL games.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall Season Results: 8-8-0

(One side note, I don’t EVER remember picking this many road teams in a week. Makes me a bit nervous.)

Week 2 Picks

Sunday

OAK (+3.5) at KC
When your head coach is distancing himself from his own defense, you could lose to a team as shitty/young as KC.
Pick: KC

TEN (+1.5) at CIN
After watching Cincinnati’s atrocious offensive line, it’s hard to really bet on them, especially against the Titans D.
Pick: TEN

IND (-2) at MIN
Indy and Peyton looked bad on Sunday, but I’d put that more on the solid Chicago secondary. Minnesota? 28th in pass defense last season.
Pick: IND

NO (PK) at WAS
Washington looked pretty poor last week and it seemed like NO may have figured out how to use Bush effectively.
Pick: NO

GB (-3) at DET
I’ve reversed field on Rodgers - he looked great on Monday. Very under control, made lots of good throws. I’m paying the “home underdog in division” philosophy no mind.
Pick: GB

CHI (+3) at Carolina
DeAngelo Williams looked like Jim Brown last Sunday, but he wasn’t facing the reinvigorated Bears D. I’m liking the Kyle Orton bandwagon.
Pick: CHI

NYG (-7) at STL
St. Louis looked really embarrassing on Sunday - no other way to say it. I think I’d pick NYG at -17.
Pick: NYG

BUF (+5.5) at JAX
Jacksonville’s down two offensive linemen and they still have no dependable receivers. I’ll (surprisingly) take the points.
Pick: BUF

ATL (+7.5) at TB
That is a lot of points to give a team that just ran for 300+ yards, even if it was against DET.
Pick: ATL

SFO (+7) at SEA
Seattle’s missing its top four WR’s and it’s top running back, so I’ll pick us one more time.
Pick: SFO

MIA (+7.0) at ARI
Kurt Warner is 35-2 lifetime when his wire-haired man-goblin wife isn’t in the stands*
Pick: ARI

NWE (+1.5) at NYJ
This seems like a good spot for NWE to get bushwhacked, but the Jets barely beat the Dolphins last week.
Pick: NWE

SD (-1.5) at DEN
I can’t believe I picked SD last week. Back in the day, I always had one golden rule: “If you have an opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you should always take that opportunity.”
Pick: DEN

PIT (-6) at CLE
Pittsburgh looked like the best AFC team last week. Cleveland looked “not ready for primetime.”
Pick: PIT

Monday

BAL (+4.5) at HOU (moved from Sunday)
I did a double-take when I read this line. I don’t think I saw anything from Houston last week that looked decent.
Pick: BAL

PHI (+7) at DAL
Two of the best-looking teams last weekend, but one of them was playing STL.
Pick: DAL

*=I made that up