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I’d just like to thank everyone’s support as I’ve once again climbed out of the gutter of negativity to reach .500. Now, how bad of a beat was that last week when the ref blew that muffed punt call against Atlanta and Philadelphia picked up the garbage time TD? Yeah? Anyone with me on that one? No?

Bye week for the Niners, so I won’t have to glue myself to the television/seat screaming at Manny Lawson to do something with his life. Also, the Chargers are off this week, so no Norv Turner Rule in effect. For those of you scoring at home, The NTR (”If you have the opportunity to pick against Norv Turner, take that opportunity.”) is 6-2 this season. I think it’s about 43-2 lifetime. I counted it.

Last week: 8-6
Overall Season Results: 57-57-2

Sunday

HOU (+4.5) at MIN
Minnesota hasn’t really showed anything impressive yet and the Texans have looked surprisingly explosive on offense. I would probably bet on Houston on the Money Line in this game.
Pick: HOU

JAX (-7.5) at CIN
Just not really that impressed by Jacksonville right now. They’re not running the ball, their offensive line is horrible, and their D is giving up 100+ yards per game. Cedric Benson actually looks like a real NFL player for Cincinnati
Pick: CIN

TB (-8) at KC
Where did that performance from Tyler Thigpen come from last week? Maybe this team has some fight in them after all. Tampa’s offense was awful last week against the Crappy Cowboys.
Pick: KC

BAL (+1.5) at CLE
Cleveland’s defense has been really fantastic lately and Anderson’s coming around. Kellen Winslow back in this game and Chris McAlister might still be out for Baltimore. I’ll take the home team.
Pick: CLE

NYJ (+5.5) at BUF
I think Buffalo gets back on track against Favre’s old gunslinger self. Jets have not played well on the road.
Pick: BUF

ARI (-3) at STL
I’d rather bet on the o/u on this game. 48? Seems low. St. Louis looks like a completely different team under Haslett. Note: I was officially on the Donnie Avery bandwagon before it got crowded.
Pick: STL

DET (+13) at CHI
Since getting battered by these Bears four weeks ago, Detroit has actually put up a pretty good fight against their next three opponents. 13 points just seems like a ton.
Pick: DET

GB (+4.5) at TEN
Picking Tennessee has been pretty much a lock for me every week so far, but for some reason Green Bay (off a bye, Bigby and Harris back) seem like they’re putting things together. Rodgers, do not screw me again.
Pick: GB

MIA (+3.5) at DEN
Biggest slide in spread of the week, down from 6 points early. Both defenses have been pretty bad, Cutler is healthy with most of his full complement of receivers back off the bye.
Pick: DEN

ATL (-3) at OAK
The Tom Cable era, not going great. Picking a rookie quarterback on the road is scary, but picking the Raiders is scarier.
Pick: ATL

DAL (+8) at NYG
Brad Johnson won’t be finishing this game for the Cowboys. He’ll either get knocked out on one of 40 sacks or he’ll just get benched. Huge win last weekend by the Giants.
Pick: NYG

PHI (-6.5) at SEA
I hate to say it, but the Seahawks somehow blew the Niners out last week without looking impressive.
Pick: PHI

NWE (+6) at IND
Six points is a lot to give to a team that seems to be getting its bearings. The Pats are getting back to their old style of play, which won them Super Bowls before Brady made a deal with the Devil and turned it into the Evil Empire. Something just seems off about Indy.
Pick: NWE

Monday

PIT (+2) at WAS
Game of the week, on a monday night no less. Santonio and Willie Parker back for the Steelers should help on offense and I think their defense will do just fine.
Pick: PIT

After starting out 6-2 in the early goings last week, I miraculously… went 1-5 in the afternoon, evening, and Monday to end the week at .500. Not cool.

Last week: 7-7
Overall Season Results: 49-51-2

Sunday

OAK (+7) at BAL
The Raiders started letting Russell really air it out last week. If they do that this week, the Ravens’ D will be the highest-scoring fantasy football player of week 8.
Pick: BAL

SD (-3) at NO (in London)
Fact: The ‘NTR’ is officially 5-2 this season. If you’re not sure what that is, might need to re-read previous weeks.
Pick: NO

KC (+13.5) at NYJ
Huge spread for a team that couldn’t beat the Raiders last week. After all, was it really that surprising that KC would get blown out against Tennessee? Just seems like too many points.
Pick: KC

BUF (-1.5) at MIA
Hear that? That’s me jumping off of the Miami bandwagon. So actually, I’m not real down on Miami, but I just think this is a special Bills team.
Pick: BUF

TB (+1.5) at DAL
The Cowboys are in a free-fall, and the way to get out of it isn’t to play a resurgent Jeff Garcia. Galloway might come back to burn the Dallas DB’s this weekend too.
Pick: TB

ATL (+8.5) at PHI
Westbrook’s back and Philly will be throwing a lot of blitz looks at Ryan after the bye week, but it seems like the rookie is prepared beyond his years. I’ll take the points here.
Pick: ATL

STL (+7) at NWE
Two INT’s for OJ last weekend, including a fantastic grab while covering TO. I have to keep picking them, right? Harrison is a big loss for the Pats.
Pick: STL

ARI (+4.5) at CAR
As mentioned last week, home-field advantage in the NFC South really means something.
Pick: CAR

WAS (-7.5) at DET
The only real question in this game is whether Washington pulls off the gas pedal early.
Pick: WAS

CLE (+7) at JAX
Cleveland is really on the verge of putting this all together. I swear this time.
Pick: CLE

NYG (+3) at PIT
This game could be a Super Bowl preview. I like the Steelers at home in a tough, low-scoring matchup.
Pick: PIT

SEA (+5.5) at SF
It took a religious moment for Seattle to cover that spread last weekend. Who goes up 17-0 and puts on the brakes like Tampa did?
Pick: SF

CIN (+9.5) at HOU
The Bengals just straight gave up last week. +9.5 points is kind of a sucker spread, because it looks huge but is usually pretty much the same thing as +7.5 in football.
Pick: HOU

Monday

IND (+4) at TEN
Man, that whole “Indianapolis is back!” thing last week? Johnson and White run for about 250 this week.
Pick: TEN

Another Sunday, another horrific weekend that pulls me down below the .500 mark for the season. Remember that remark I made last week about never having picked every team that was favored by 7+ points? Well, not only did all of them not cover, but all but one of them lost. Wow.

I’m making some small tweaks to my picks methodology this week (after all, this year’s the first time I’ve ever picked the full slate of games every week). It definitely needs some work.

Last week: 5-9
Overall Season Results: 42-44-2

Sunday

TEN (-8) at KC
The Chiefs have done very poorly against tough defenses, including a 0-34 loss against Carolina a few weeks ago. Now they have no LJ. Tennessee looks like the best (or at least most consistent) team in football at this point.
Pick: TEN

SD (PK) at BUF
I think my Norv Turner rule is something like 4-2 this season. San Diego has a history of tanking hangover games and has been pretty mediocre on the road. Cross-country trips West to East are tough.
Pick: BUF

PIT (-9.5) at CIN
This line’s mostly similar to a -7.5 line and I certainly wouldn’t pick the Bengals (0-6, no Carson) at +7.5.
Pick: PIT

BAL (-3) at MIA
Baltimore burned me last week. They’re clearly one of those teams that can battle in the trenches, but can never come from behind or succeed in a shoot-out. It’s just difficult to expect Flacco to win on the road for them.
Pick: MIA

DAL (-7) at STL
OJ finally had a Sportscenter-level play last week, so it’s time to start giving the Rams some love. Donnie Avery’ll get loose for a score in this one.
Pick: STL

MIN (+3) at CHI
Tricky game. Two stout run defenses. Two bad secondaries. Orton is looking good though, and Chicago’s played pretty well at home. Plus they’re coming off that embarrassment last week.
Pick: CHI

NO (+3) at CAR
Carolina hasn’t lost at home, New Orleans hasn’t won on the road. The homefield advantage in those NFC South stadiums is real.
Pick: CAR

SF (+10.5) at NYG
Look, maybe the Giants were just in a slump last week and they’ll come back hungry on Sunday. Maybe. Or maybe their front 7 legitimately struggled. Either way, I’m taking the points and rooting hard.
Pick: SF

DET (+8.5) at HOU
This is the week!… for the Lions to get back to their ways of losing by 14+. Andre Johnson could end up with 900 yards receiving.
Pick: HOU

NYJ (-3) at OAK
Lost in the Brett Favre hyperbole is the fact that the Jets defense has been surprisingly good, yardage wise (11th in the league).
Pick: NYJ

CLE (+7.5) at WAS
Should be a great game, now that Cleveland picked up the pace last week. Cleveland’s defense has been very underrated and the offense is putting it together.
Pick: CLE

IND (-1.5) at GB
It’s Peyton Manning time
Pick: IND

SEA (+10.5) at TB
I thought the Seahawks were in big trouble BEFORE Hasselbeck went down. See above comments from NO vs. CAR game.
Pick: TB

Monday

DEN (+3) at NWE
Denver’s struggled with a couple of stout defenses in a row, but I’m not sure the Patriots qualify as that anymore. This one’ll be a shootout and I like Cutler over Cassel in that kind of a game.
Pick: DEN

Good week last week. Gotta keep it going…

Last Week: 9-3-2
Overall Season Results: 37-35-2

Sunday

OAK (+7.5) at NO
I’ve got a feeling that the Tom Cable era in Oakland is not going to go well. New Orleans looking for a bounceback after all those mistakes against Minnesota.
Pick: NO

BAL (+4) at IND
How lucky was Indy to pull that game out last week? After back-to-back smashmouth losses to Pittsburgh and Tennessee, I think the Ravens pull this one out by dominating on the ground.
Pick: BAL

CIN (+7.5) at NYJ
No Carson in this game. I have a feeling this’ll be off the board or moved dramatically by Sunday. It’s a good thing I got in!
Pick: NYJ

CAR (+1.5) at TB
Big game in the NFC South and I think Carolina starts separating from the pack this week. Jeff Garcia is old.
Pick: CAR

DET (+13.5) at MIN
Detroit does not look like an NFL football team. I wonder if it’s possible for AP to run for 900 yards in a game.
Pick: MIN

CHI (-3) at ATL
Defense getting back to full strength? Check. Professional QB? Check.
Pick: CHI

MIA (+3) at HOU
Hear that? That’s the sound of me leaping onto the Dolphins bandwagon with two feet. Strong running game, efficient QB, tricky Wildcat offense, chip on their shoulder, growing confidence. I’m sold for this week.
Pick: MIA

STL (+13.5) at WAS
Washington = on a roll. The Rams look horrendous.
Pick: WAS

JAX (+3.5) at DEN
Cutler’s been great at home. With no Eddie Royal or Tony Scheffler, it’s Brandon Stokley time.
Pick: DEN

PHI (-5) at SFO
I hate doing this for the second straight week for a game I will be attending, but the Niners just haven’t protected the QB at all this season. Not a good recipe when Jim Johnson’s blitzing defense comes to town.
Pick: PHI

DAL (-4.5) at ARI
I did a slight double-take when I saw this line. I’m just not on the Cardinals bandwagon.
Pick: DAL

GB (+1.5) at SEA
It used to be that the Seattle homefield advantage was worth 3-4 points. I still don’t see how that would get them to a win in this game.
Pick: GB

NWE (+5.5) at SD
You’ve probably realized the pattern by now: when you have an opportunity to pick against Norv Turner and a bum LT toe, you take that opportunity.
Pick: NWE

Monday

NYG (-7.5) at CLE
This is probably the first week I’ve ever picked every team that was favored by >7 points. I’d like to say Cleveland can get their act together coming off a bye, but the Giants are killing right now.
Pick: NYG

I’ve been looking for the proper metaphor for the stunning (and still continuing) crash of the stock market over the past two weeks and I’ve finally found it: ‘The Stomach Punch.’

‘The Stomach Punch’ is a term coined by Bill Simmons in his ‘13 Levels of Losing‘ column. As Simmons puts it, the ‘Stomach Punch’ is:

Any roller-coaster game that ends with A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play, or B) one of your guys failing in the clutch … usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all … always haunting, sometimes scarring

I think every poker player I’ve ever met has had at least one such ’stomach punch’ moment in his/her time playing. It’s the sickening feeling that comes from being blindsided with a horrific loss, usually following an extended period of good fortune. The suddenness and degree of the stomach punch are its hallmarks. Maybe it’s a sick beat (”The guy had two outs with one to come… Two OUTS!”). Maybe it’s a cold deck. Maybe it’s getting outplayed/trapped. Whatever the case, there are two common ways to deal with it (in a cash game):

1. Feel your stomach knotting up while you slowly stand and stumble away, legs wobbly, head in a complete daze. You have a sudden urge to call loved ones just to hear the sound of humanity, or
2. In an opaque mental haze, reach into your wallet/clip and peel off a suddenly very uncomfortable stack of bills to put onto the table in a macho effort to win back your pride.

Neither feels good. One is, almost certainly, destined to feel worse in the morning.

The most real and human result of a ’stomach punch night’ is to wake up in the morning and question everything about your play. There is little that is more humbling than the continuous replaying of a hand gone wrong from the night before. It is a pure, introspective analysis, backed by the brutal honesty of big bills missing from your wallet. It is a sickening truth.

That’s how I feel about the market crash of the past week or two.

As a young man who only started making a salary four years ago, I’ve really never known negative results from investing in the market. Take a quick look at the Google Finance chart of the Dow from August 2004 through the beginning of this calendar year below:

In retrospect, it’s clear that a correction was probably in order – perhaps not to the upcoming degree, but it was inevitable. And sure, in hindsight it’s simple to label its timing as obvious. But when you’ve never personally seen a downturn like this, it’s no different than seeing your opponent spike a 2-outter on the River for a large sum of money. You get that knot in your stomach as you count the basis (or, actually, percentage) points leak out of your portfolio.

Sure, more seasoned/experienced investors may have warned you it would come, but the reality doesn’t humble you until it happens.

Like the ’stomach punch’ in poker, the perspective I’m taking to this crisis is humble and reasoned introspection. I’ve found myself being very honest about my own lack of knowledge and particular mistakes. I’m re-evaluating my appetite for risk-reward and questioning every assumption. It’s a healthy process, but it’s also brutal.

It’s turning ugly in a hurry. I really have no excuses. The only bright side is that if I was putting a lot of money on all of these games, I’d be extremely depressed. Woo!

Last Week: 5-8
Overall Season Results: 28-32-0

Sunday

IND (-3) at HOU
Indy, coming off a buy week, offensive line mostly healthy… I’m going with Peyton, even on the road.
Pick: IND

TEN (-3) at BAL
Tennessee looks like it’s on a mission. They won’t be able to run a lot in this defensive struggle, but I think they’ll survive.
Pick: TEN

SD (-7) at MIA
Time to go back to the “If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, take that opportunity” rule.
Pick: MIA

KC (+9.5) at CAR
Carolina’s getting their legs under them. Unless their offense makes as many mistakes as Denver last week, I’m envisioning a big win at home.
Pick: CAR

WAS (+6) at PHI
The Redskins were great last week on the road in Dallas. Campbell looks very under control and should be able to handle the myriad blitzes from Jim Johnson.
Pick: WAS

CHI (-3.5) at DET
Tough schedule for the Bears so far, and they’ve emerged 2-2. Running lanes should be aplenty for them in this game.
Pick: CHI

ATL (+4) at GB
That Green Bay defense should be able to carry the team at home.
Pick: GB

SEA (+7) at NYG
No Plaxico for the Giants and Seattle gets some real wide receivers back. I’ll take the points.
Pick: SEA

TB (+3) at DEN
How surprising was that Denver-KC game last week? Here’s hoping that Denver offense doesn’t make so many mistakes again.
Pick: DEN

NWE (-3) at SFO
As a Niners fan, this is a trap game. Belichick’s had two weeks to prepare and they’re hungry. I’m playing Sammy Morris in every fantasy league I have him. I hope I’m wrong.
Pick: NWE

BUF (+1) at ARI
At some point Buffalo’s going to stumble, they’ve been close two weeks in a row, but not this week.
Pick: BUF

CIN (+16.5) at DAL
That is a LOT of points. If Carson plays, Cincy should be able to put points on the board against this DAL secondary.
Pick: CIN

PIT (+4.5) at JAX
The Steelers pulled out a great win against Baltimore on Monday. It looks like they’ve figured out how to work around their offensive line problems by having their defense carry them.
Pick: PIT

Monday

MIN (+3) at NO
Sounds crazy, but I wasn’t that impressed by New Orleans last week. AP should be able run.
Pick: MIN