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I’d like to take credit for how masterfully I picked those games last week (12-4, in case anyone’s scoring at home), but the truth is it’s luck. Or rather, random variance. Luck would be if I had just randomly started picking games for a week last week.

The truth is that I started the season guessing that my approximate win percentage on a per-game basis would be approximately 52-55% (52.38% would be essentially break-even with the house). 88-70-2 is slightly better than 55%, which means I’m probably just a tad outside of the mean and I would probably expect to see some reverting back in the direction of even over the next couple of weeks. That being said:

1. The NFL season is highly-variant on a per-week or even per-month basis (the small number of games makes it so), and
2. Individual NFL games deviate dramatically from expected value often, due to the large percentage of a game’s total score that a single play can have. Case in point: an incorrect call by the officials swinging an 8-point Steelers win to a 1-point Steelers win last week.

All of that is a long way of saying: things have gone pretty much as expected for the season.

Last week: 12-4
Overall Season Results: 88-70-2

Thursday

CIN (+11) at PIT
[Note: picked this game on Thursday morning.] Hard to imagine Cincinnati being able to move the ball on the ground (or in the air without Ocho Cinco) in this game.
Pick: PIT

Sunday

HOU (+3) at CLE
The really good sign last week was Brady Quinn hooking up with Braylon Edwards several times. I think Winslow probably plays in this game and the Browns get it done.
Pick: CLE

BUF (-3) at KC
Well that Buffalo Bills bandwagon fell apart in a quick hurry. You can tell because they’re giving up three points to a 1-9 team. Really?
Pick: BUF

NYJ (+5.5) at TEN
This pretty much comes down to which Brett Favre shows up. But if we let ourselves lose the cynicism for a moment, maybe Favre is really settling in with his new team and has brought some effective balance to the Jets.
Pick: NYJ

NWE (+1.5) at MIA
Very different Pats team from the one that got stomped on in Week 3 and ended my Survivor League season.
Pick: NWE

SFO (+10) at DAL
I still think the Niners are better than most folks think. I’m also incredibly biased.
Pick: SFO

TB (-8.5) at DET
I can already see the dirty backdoor cover showing up here. Tampa’s a solid team but they usually end up playing a ton of close games and don’t stomp on teams on the road.
Pick: DET

PHI (+1.5) at BAL
Westbrook beat up and the Eagles not looking hot. Baltimore got bludgeoned by the Giants last week, but who isn’t getting crushed by Eli and company lately?
Pick: BAL

CHI (-7.5) at STL
I saw it in-person last week: the Rams are awful.
Pick: CHI

MIN (+2) at JAX
Jacksonville’s run defense hasn’t been stout – I think AP has a big day against the Jaguars.
Pick: MIN

CAR (+1) at ATL
Bounceback game for the Panthers after two subpar performances against the two worst teams in the league.
Pick: CAR

OAK (+9) at DEN
Shanahan LOVES to run it up on Al Davis’ team whenever possible. You have to love the guys who don’t EVER let old grudges die…
Pick: DEN

WAS (-3.5) at SEA
Slightly bizarre line to me. It’s Matt Hasselbeck, not Joe Montana, right? I understand that stadium is hard to play in, but…
Pick: WAS

NYG (-3.5) at ARI
I think oddsmakers are thinking that sports gamblers are going to be swayed by Arizona’s lofty-looking record, but 4 of their wins have been against the NFC West and the other three were against Miami (pre-Wildcat), Buffalo, and a Romo-less Dallas team.
Pick: NYG

IND (+3) at SD
Norv Turner was able to score a victory over the NTR last week on the basis of a shitty call by the officials at the end of the game. Ouch. 7-3 on the season is still a pretty solid start. Good signs from the Indy running game last weekend.
Pick: IND

Monday

GB (+2.5) at NO
Packers are playing well right now. They’re 1-2 over the past three games, but could just as easily have been 3-0.
Pick: GB

I had a couple of questions a few days ago from folks about the NTR (Norv Turner Rule). The question basically was: “Isn’t it kind of lame that you take this random rule to pick each week’s game for San Diego? I thought the point was that you’re picking games based on some sort of actual knowledge instead of just having random pet rules.”

That’s probably my fault for not thoroughly explaining the Norv Turner Rule. The rule actually originated during the 2004 and 2005 season, when Turner was coaching the Raiders. During those seasons, I would usually be forced into watching Raiders games due to the NFL’s broadcast rules. What I saw was a man (with a tremendous track record as an offensive coordinator, by the way) who has absolutely no business being an NFL coach. What stood out was not so much the losing, as it was the complete lack of preparation and passion from his teams.

Fast forward to last year when Turner got the job from the Chargers. Here was a sportsbetting dream: an awful coach with unreal talent on his sideline. Talent so strong that they could coast through the majority of games and win. Sure, every fifth game or so, the Chargers would really come to play and obliterate their opponents. But with Norv Turner at the helm, you could be sure that they wouldn’t do so consistently. Yet, since they’re so talented, their record would continue to look impressive, which would lead to oddsmakers assuming (correctly) that gamblers would respect that.

I have to admit, I was a bit worried about the NTR at the start of the season when San Diego lost a couple of top talents (Merriman, etc.), but Rivers has played well enough to keep their record decent, leading to ridiculous spreads like -14.5 last week against Kansas City.

By the way, the NTR is 7-2 this season.

Last week: 10-4
Overall Season Results: 76-66-2

Thursday

NYJ (+3) at NWE
[Note: posted this before Thursday evening's game.] Surprising balance lately by the Jets offense and their defense has been pretty stout as well. Short week is generally relatively better for teams facing Belichick (longer the week, more time for his crazy adjustments).
Pick: NYJ

Sunday

DEN (+6) at ATL
Lots of points here, especially against an explosive offense like Denver. I do like what’s going on in Atlanta, but Cutler has his full complement of receivers back. Not having a legitimate tailback shouldn’t slow them down that much.
Pick: DEN

OAK (+10.5) at MIA
Normally I would scoff at a spread this outrageous for Miami – they’re just not the kind of group that blows other people out a lot. The offense isn’t really built that way. But this is the Raiders. It’s bizarre to think they actually beat the Jets.
Pick: MIA

BAL (+6.5) at NYG
Interesting how the Giants have turned into a genuinely dominant team. Monster running game, diverse passing game (with a smart QB), and a brutal defense. Throw in homefield advantage and an inconsistent Baltimore team…
Pick: NYG

HOU (+7.5) at IND
Indy needed several really poor decisions by Big Ben to pull out that win last week. With Slaton back this week, the Texans should be able to keep it close and possibly pull this out.
Pick: HOU

TEN (-3) at JAX
We’re supposed to be on the Jacksonville bandwagon because they ran all over Detroit last week? Not buying it.
Pick: TEN

CHI (+3.5) at GB
Two really rough losses for the Packers, leading to this game to basically decide whether their season is over. I like Rodgers to go nuts on the battered Chicago secondary.
Pick: GB

PHI (-9) at CIN
That’s an awful lot of points for any team to be favored on the road. Cincinnati, coming off a bye week, was starting to look almost decent a few weeks ago.
Pick: CIN

NO (-5.5) at KC
LJ’s back and should help give KC some good balance on offense. Brees and company are in a bit of a free fall.
Pick: KC

DET (+14) at CAR
Bounce-back game this week for Carolina, after zombie-walking past Oakland. Playing at home, against Daunte Culpepper looks like a good place to start.
Pick: CAR

MIN (+4) at TB
Home-field advantage in the NFC South means a lot. Tampa’s defense matches up well with Minnesota I think.
Pick: TB

STL (+6.5) at SFO
I maybe be a total homer, but I don’t see how a Jackson-less Rams team can stick with San Francisco when I’m in the stands cheering.
Pick: SFO

ARI (-3) at SEA
So… Seattle’s homefield advantage is pretty solid. And Hasselbeck is back. And the Niners weren’t a great win last week… But 3 points?
Pick: ARI

SD (+4.5) at PIT
I’ve got to admit, San Diego looks tempting this week with injuries and other problems pointing in their direction. But after writing that above post, I can’t go pick the Chargers, can I?
Pick: PIT

DAL (-1.5) at WAS
Romo back, bigger role for Roy E. Williams. It should all lead to better running lanes for Barber against a Portis-like Redskins team.
Pick: DAL

Monday

CLE (+5.5) at BUF
Buffalo is in a real free fall and the Cleveland defense is actually pretty stout. Long week of prep for the rookie QB to go on the road probably means he’ll be decently prepared.
Pick: CLE

On Thursday evening I was sitting on the couch, surfing the Internet with Sportscenter on in the background, when clips from Portland’s 101-99 win over Houston came on. I watched with interest as Roy hit his huge turnaround and as Yao sank the and-one bucket to pull ahead by one. When Roy hit the enormous flat-footed three, I let out a loud yelp of ‘Ohhhh!’. Ivy looked at me like I was crazy.

Though it was a surprising and unexpected moment of victory, Portland’s win (to a casual sports fan) doesn’t seem like it should excite me at all. After all, what emotional connection do I have to the Trailblazers? Yao’s chinese (+1). I love Ron Artest’s play (+1). I love watching to see if Artest is going to do something crazy (+1). Always been a fan of Tracy McGrady (+1). Very bullish on Brandon Roy (-1). I’ve always thought the Blazers should’ve drafted Durant (+1).

I believe that puts me at +3 in the rooting section for the Rockets.

But simple rooting interests represent only a small part of why we really watch sports. It’s just the first-level of sports enjoyment. Being a fan of a team is a sufficient condition to watch the team’s game, but it’s far from the only reason for doing so. You might watch a game because of its importance in the world of sports (the ‘Tiger Woods’ effect). You might watch a game because of a transcendent star who demands your attention (the ‘Michael Jordan’ effect) – note to Lakers fans, Kobe Bryant does not qualify. You might even watch a game for the pure passive entertainment value (the ‘Game and a beer’ effect).

While all of those reasons are valid, the real reason we (addictive sports fans) watch sports is the simple possibility of amazing moments. Moments like the time Brandon Roy scored twice (including a 35-foot three-pointer) in the last 1.9 seconds to pull his team to a two-point victory. Or when the Tampa Bay Rays hold off the Red Sox in a fantastic Game 7 in the ALCS Championships. Or an unreal Lebron James hammer dunk. Or when Nick Robinson beats Arizona on an unbelievable half-court shot to keep Stanford’s unbeaten season alive:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP-NlPIVBsw

We watch sports in the hope of moments like those. We sit through boring blowouts in the middle of the season and last-minute comebacks that fall seconds short just for the mere possibility that those games might result in a fantastic moment or two. Usually it doesn’t happen, but those rare moments more than make up for all of the unspectacular hours. It’s why we can’t understand people who leave at the first sign of possible loss or folks who decide to just check on the score later. And it’s certainly why we detest bandwagon jumpers who root for a team only in the good times. Because those spectacular experiences are rewards for the commitment and investment of our time.

My favorite storyline of this season has been the outrageousness that is the Oakland Raiders franchise. I won’t re-hash the Lane Kiffin hilarity, but let’s take a quick look at the DeAngelo Hall saga:

• In the offseason, the Raiders traded 2nd and 5th round picks for DeAngelo Hall, a cornerback who went to the Pro Bowl last year. They did this against Kiffin’s opinions.
• Hall played eight games for the Raiders this season, getting paid $1M PER GAME. He was dusted several times for long gains, playing opposite the Raiders star CB Nnamdi Asomugha.
• The Raiders unceremoniously cut him yesterday, basically lighting their two draft picks on fire and releasing a very talented player
• Now other Raiders players are speaking out, saying things like: “I’ve never been in a situation where you cut one of the best players,” and “I am just a player so I can’t speak on it. I don’t make the decisions…. we’re just supposed to shut up and play.”

Good times! It really makes me relieved to be a Niners fan. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Last week: 9-5
Overall Season Results: 66-62-2

Thursday

DEN (+3) at CLE
If there was a good time to start out as a first-time QB, it’s against the awful Broncos defense. Denver is reeling and just can’t stop the run. Look for Jamal Lewis to get a lot of work on the ground.
Pick: CLE

Sunday

JAX (-6) at DET
I’m having trouble understanding why Jacksonville is playing so badly. They can’t even run the ball anymore against normal NFL teams. Luckily Detroit is less than a normal NFL team.
Pick: JAX

TEN (-3) at CHI
Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s get ahold of ourselves here. Isn’t one of these teams 8-0 and didn’t the other team almost lose to the Lions last week? Chicago might play inspired ball and pull this off, but the spread seems bizarre.
Pick: TEN

BUF (+4) at NWE
If the Bills lose this game, they’ll be in a serious hole. It’s bizarre that they’ve been unable to run the ball. And Trent Edwards just isn’t (yet) the kind of QB that can carry a team for 16 games.
Pick: NWE

NO (+1) at ATL
I do like what the Falcons are doing right now, but Brees and company should have a good day. Colston should finally be back at full speed.
Pick: NO

STL (+9) at NYJ
Too many points. The Rams didn’t look great last week, but Favre and company can’t really trusted to stomp on teams every week. I’m thinking OJ gets a pick or two in this one.
Pick: STL

SEA (+9) at MIA
I still can’t believe the Niners lost to this team…
Pick: MIA

GB (+2.5) at MIN
Who would’ve thought that Gus Frerotte would be the biggest gunslinger in a game between the Vikings and the Packers?
Pick: MIN

CAR (-9) at OAK
Clearly the Raiders’ release of DeAngelo Hall is going to solve all their problems. After all, it’s not like the Falcons left treadmarks all over them last week.
Pick: CAR

KC (+14.5) at SD
The Norv Turner Rule is definitely poised to move to 7-2 on the season this week. The Chiefs are playing much better and Norv Turner was once the head coach of the Raiders.
Pick: KC

IND (+3) at PIT
For real this tim, Peyton and co. are getting it together.
Pick: IND

NYG (+2.5) at PHI
At what point did Eli Manning become the brother who was more reliable and less likely to throw some outrageous picks? I feel like they roll in this game.
Pick: NYG

BAL (-1) at HOU
Sage Rosenfels is like Matt Schaub… ‘s Dad. Who needs Willis McGahee when you’ve got Ray Rice and company?
Pick: BAL

Monday

SF (+9.5) at ARI
I’m pretty confident that Shaun Hill can keep this game close – it also sounds like the Niners will be pounding the run a bit more, which will be a welcome change.
Pick: SF