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I had a couple of questions a few days ago from folks about the NTR (Norv Turner Rule). The question basically was: “Isn’t it kind of lame that you take this random rule to pick each week’s game for San Diego? I thought the point was that you’re picking games based on some sort of actual knowledge instead of just having random pet rules.”

That’s probably my fault for not thoroughly explaining the Norv Turner Rule. The rule actually originated during the 2004 and 2005 season, when Turner was coaching the Raiders. During those seasons, I would usually be forced into watching Raiders games due to the NFL’s broadcast rules. What I saw was a man (with a tremendous track record as an offensive coordinator, by the way) who has absolutely no business being an NFL coach. What stood out was not so much the losing, as it was the complete lack of preparation and passion from his teams.

Fast forward to last year when Turner got the job from the Chargers. Here was a sportsbetting dream: an awful coach with unreal talent on his sideline. Talent so strong that they could coast through the majority of games and win. Sure, every fifth game or so, the Chargers would really come to play and obliterate their opponents. But with Norv Turner at the helm, you could be sure that they wouldn’t do so consistently. Yet, since they’re so talented, their record would continue to look impressive, which would lead to oddsmakers assuming (correctly) that gamblers would respect that.

I have to admit, I was a bit worried about the NTR at the start of the season when San Diego lost a couple of top talents (Merriman, etc.), but Rivers has played well enough to keep their record decent, leading to ridiculous spreads like -14.5 last week against Kansas City.

By the way, the NTR is 7-2 this season.

Last week: 10-4
Overall Season Results: 76-66-2

Thursday

NYJ (+3) at NWE
[Note: posted this before Thursday evening's game.] Surprising balance lately by the Jets offense and their defense has been pretty stout as well. Short week is generally relatively better for teams facing Belichick (longer the week, more time for his crazy adjustments).
Pick: NYJ

Sunday

DEN (+6) at ATL
Lots of points here, especially against an explosive offense like Denver. I do like what’s going on in Atlanta, but Cutler has his full complement of receivers back. Not having a legitimate tailback shouldn’t slow them down that much.
Pick: DEN

OAK (+10.5) at MIA
Normally I would scoff at a spread this outrageous for Miami – they’re just not the kind of group that blows other people out a lot. The offense isn’t really built that way. But this is the Raiders. It’s bizarre to think they actually beat the Jets.
Pick: MIA

BAL (+6.5) at NYG
Interesting how the Giants have turned into a genuinely dominant team. Monster running game, diverse passing game (with a smart QB), and a brutal defense. Throw in homefield advantage and an inconsistent Baltimore team…
Pick: NYG

HOU (+7.5) at IND
Indy needed several really poor decisions by Big Ben to pull out that win last week. With Slaton back this week, the Texans should be able to keep it close and possibly pull this out.
Pick: HOU

TEN (-3) at JAX
We’re supposed to be on the Jacksonville bandwagon because they ran all over Detroit last week? Not buying it.
Pick: TEN

CHI (+3.5) at GB
Two really rough losses for the Packers, leading to this game to basically decide whether their season is over. I like Rodgers to go nuts on the battered Chicago secondary.
Pick: GB

PHI (-9) at CIN
That’s an awful lot of points for any team to be favored on the road. Cincinnati, coming off a bye week, was starting to look almost decent a few weeks ago.
Pick: CIN

NO (-5.5) at KC
LJ’s back and should help give KC some good balance on offense. Brees and company are in a bit of a free fall.
Pick: KC

DET (+14) at CAR
Bounce-back game this week for Carolina, after zombie-walking past Oakland. Playing at home, against Daunte Culpepper looks like a good place to start.
Pick: CAR

MIN (+4) at TB
Home-field advantage in the NFC South means a lot. Tampa’s defense matches up well with Minnesota I think.
Pick: TB

STL (+6.5) at SFO
I maybe be a total homer, but I don’t see how a Jackson-less Rams team can stick with San Francisco when I’m in the stands cheering.
Pick: SFO

ARI (-3) at SEA
So… Seattle’s homefield advantage is pretty solid. And Hasselbeck is back. And the Niners weren’t a great win last week… But 3 points?
Pick: ARI

SD (+4.5) at PIT
I’ve got to admit, San Diego looks tempting this week with injuries and other problems pointing in their direction. But after writing that above post, I can’t go pick the Chargers, can I?
Pick: PIT

DAL (-1.5) at WAS
Romo back, bigger role for Roy E. Williams. It should all lead to better running lanes for Barber against a Portis-like Redskins team.
Pick: DAL

Monday

CLE (+5.5) at BUF
Buffalo is in a real free fall and the Cleveland defense is actually pretty stout. Long week of prep for the rookie QB to go on the road probably means he’ll be decently prepared.
Pick: CLE