smallchou.com/blog

I’d like to take credit for how masterfully I picked those games last week (12-4, in case anyone’s scoring at home), but the truth is it’s luck. Or rather, random variance. Luck would be if I had just randomly started picking games for a week last week.

The truth is that I started the season guessing that my approximate win percentage on a per-game basis would be approximately 52-55% (52.38% would be essentially break-even with the house). 88-70-2 is slightly better than 55%, which means I’m probably just a tad outside of the mean and I would probably expect to see some reverting back in the direction of even over the next couple of weeks. That being said:

1. The NFL season is highly-variant on a per-week or even per-month basis (the small number of games makes it so), and
2. Individual NFL games deviate dramatically from expected value often, due to the large percentage of a game’s total score that a single play can have. Case in point: an incorrect call by the officials swinging an 8-point Steelers win to a 1-point Steelers win last week.

All of that is a long way of saying: things have gone pretty much as expected for the season.

Last week: 12-4
Overall Season Results: 88-70-2

Thursday

CIN (+11) at PIT
[Note: picked this game on Thursday morning.] Hard to imagine Cincinnati being able to move the ball on the ground (or in the air without Ocho Cinco) in this game.
Pick: PIT

Sunday

HOU (+3) at CLE
The really good sign last week was Brady Quinn hooking up with Braylon Edwards several times. I think Winslow probably plays in this game and the Browns get it done.
Pick: CLE

BUF (-3) at KC
Well that Buffalo Bills bandwagon fell apart in a quick hurry. You can tell because they’re giving up three points to a 1-9 team. Really?
Pick: BUF

NYJ (+5.5) at TEN
This pretty much comes down to which Brett Favre shows up. But if we let ourselves lose the cynicism for a moment, maybe Favre is really settling in with his new team and has brought some effective balance to the Jets.
Pick: NYJ

NWE (+1.5) at MIA
Very different Pats team from the one that got stomped on in Week 3 and ended my Survivor League season.
Pick: NWE

SFO (+10) at DAL
I still think the Niners are better than most folks think. I’m also incredibly biased.
Pick: SFO

TB (-8.5) at DET
I can already see the dirty backdoor cover showing up here. Tampa’s a solid team but they usually end up playing a ton of close games and don’t stomp on teams on the road.
Pick: DET

PHI (+1.5) at BAL
Westbrook beat up and the Eagles not looking hot. Baltimore got bludgeoned by the Giants last week, but who isn’t getting crushed by Eli and company lately?
Pick: BAL

CHI (-7.5) at STL
I saw it in-person last week: the Rams are awful.
Pick: CHI

MIN (+2) at JAX
Jacksonville’s run defense hasn’t been stout – I think AP has a big day against the Jaguars.
Pick: MIN

CAR (+1) at ATL
Bounceback game for the Panthers after two subpar performances against the two worst teams in the league.
Pick: CAR

OAK (+9) at DEN
Shanahan LOVES to run it up on Al Davis’ team whenever possible. You have to love the guys who don’t EVER let old grudges die…
Pick: DEN

WAS (-3.5) at SEA
Slightly bizarre line to me. It’s Matt Hasselbeck, not Joe Montana, right? I understand that stadium is hard to play in, but…
Pick: WAS

NYG (-3.5) at ARI
I think oddsmakers are thinking that sports gamblers are going to be swayed by Arizona’s lofty-looking record, but 4 of their wins have been against the NFC West and the other three were against Miami (pre-Wildcat), Buffalo, and a Romo-less Dallas team.
Pick: NYG

IND (+3) at SD
Norv Turner was able to score a victory over the NTR last week on the basis of a shitty call by the officials at the end of the game. Ouch. 7-3 on the season is still a pretty solid start. Good signs from the Indy running game last weekend.
Pick: IND

Monday

GB (+2.5) at NO
Packers are playing well right now. They’re 1-2 over the past three games, but could just as easily have been 3-0.
Pick: GB