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OAK (+9.5) at SD
The NTR is 9-3 on the season. That being said, this is one of those classic games where two airtight rules face off: the Norv Turner Rule and the Raiders Letdown Games rule (”Raiders will play awful for 2-3 games after any win”). Oakland actually played the Chargers pretty tough earlier this year though (held them to 3 points through 3 quarters). Only a few of late touchdowns turned it into a comfortable win for San Diego.
Pick: OAK

Sunday

CIN (+13.5) at IND
Decimated by injuries, Cincinnati had a brutal couple of weeks against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Having some balance on offense shouldn’t be as difficult against a Colts run defense that is 25th in the league. Plus the Colts haven’t been blowing a lot of teams out. Crazy pick, I know…
Pick: CIN

JAX (+6.5) at CHI
Tough sledding for the Jacksonville run game coming up in this game.
Pick: CHI

HOU (+6) at GB
The Texans have actually played just about every team (save for the really tough defensive clubs) closely this year. With Slaton moving the ball on the ground, Schaub/Rosenfels getting the ball to Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams playing like he should…
Pick: HOU

CLE (+13.5) at TEN
Ken Dorsey is starting at QB for the Browns. Ken Dorsey. On the road. Against one of the NFL’s best defenses. I’m envisioning at least one pick-six.
Pick: TEN

MIN (-10) at DET
The Vikings are playing really well right now and Detroit is Detroit. It looks like the Williams’ are going to play on Sunday, so tough sledding on the ground for Lions.
Pick: MIN

WAS (+5.5) at BAL
Enormous game for the ‘Skins, and I think they’re going to show up. Two stellar defenses should keep the score low. Flacco’s only seen one defense this tough in the last seven games, a 10-30 loss to the Giants.
Pick: WAS

PHI (+6.5) at NYG
I’m glad I snagged this one at 6.5 (seems to be bouncing around a lot right now), because I don’t really see that Philly win last week translating into anything close to a victory on the road against the NFL’s best team.
Pick: NYG

ATL (+3) at NO
Big shootout coming up in New Orleans. It’s not every day that an 8-4 team is a dog to a 6-6 team in the same division, but that seems to indicate a lack of belief in Atlanta. I’ve been made into a believer though.
Pick: ATL

NYJ (-4) at SFO
Niner fan or not, I’m not expecting a cover here, even with the Jets on a long west-cost road tilt. Nate Clements may be out for the game to boot.
Pick: NYJ

MIA (+1) at BUF
The Bills are in a true free-fall. JP Losman is usually good for 3 great plays and at the very least 2 TO’s in any game he plays.
Pick: MIA

KC (+9) at DEN
You just never know what’s going to happen with those crazy Denver Broncos. But we do know that LJ should have a solid day on the ground (assuming KC doesn’t fall behind early) against a horrible Broncos run defense.
Pick: KC

STL (+14) at ARI
Let’s get it started: OJ Atogwe for the Pro Bowl. C’mon people, let’s make it happen.
Pick: STL

DAL (+3) at PIT
The Cowboys are healthier, but I don’t think they’re tough. Bad weather game in the cold of Pittsburgh? I’m not seeing it.
Pick: PIT

NWE (-4.5) at SEA
I did a severe double-take when I saw this spread. Did people just not watch that game Dallas game last week?
Pick: NWE

Monday

TB (-3) at CAR
Biggest game in NFC South history (according to the sportswriters). Tampa Bay has played some questionable football on the road though. Carolina’s defense should be poised for a nice bounceback game at home.
Pick: CAR