• A legitimate top-five national ranking
• Two consecutive top-two Heisman candidates
• Potential (and likely) BCS Bowl bid
• The truly bizarre sensation of SEC, Big East, Big-12, and other games we used to watch with an independent eye now actually affecting Stanford’s fate

And of course:

• The impending reality of a “Post-Harbaugh” football program.

If you read the news, Jim Harbaugh will be leaving Stanford to go to Michigan, University of Miami, the 49ers (my personal favorite, for obvious reasons), or some other NFL destination. It’s such a point of worry for Stanford fans that even Alvin Rabushka at the Hoover Institution has written a few thoughts on how we might be able to get Harbaugh to stay.

As I noted in my comment on that blog post though, getting Jim Harbaugh to stay at Stanford would take much more than a market-rate salary. Considering it’s questionable whether Stanford would even pay up for that simple prerequisite, the whole campaign feels like an inevitably-lost cause.

Take the simple fact that we Stanford fans (including myself) are so elated to be getting into a BCS Bowl game. That’s to be expected considering I never in my wildest dreams actually thought it would happen. But by definition, that means our program is not consistently competing for the Pac-10, much less the National, Championship. Coaches in the Big Money college sports don’t stay at a school like that.

Now you might say, “But he can be the one to build the Stanford program into that!” That is true. He could stay at Stanford and build a Mike Krzyzewski-like legacy, progressively turning Stanford into a national power on the level of USC, Miami, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame. It would take literally decades and he would be a legend for it… If he was able to do it.

But for every Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo, Mark Few, Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno, there are many more Tyrone Willinghams. And to be clear, Tyrone Willingham did not capture the level of success or level of interest from other schools/teams that Harbaugh has. But all it took was one.

And if we’re really honest with ourselves, Harbaugh has popped up in enough NFL rumors over the past couple of years, resulting in enough smoke, that there is definitely fire.

That’s not an important point because so many teams are interested (because it only takes one), but rather because it means Harbaugh is interested. And I think every time Harbaugh runs onto the field at Stanford Stadium with a Top 10 team and a 30% filled building, I think he asks himself: “Why isn’t this place filled? A team this good at Michigan/Miami would be selling out a building twice this size.” (As an aside, maybe the fact that basketball stadiums are so much smaller also makes it that much easier for Krzyzewski to stay at Duke.)

So yes, it is technically possible for a coach like Jim Harbaugh to stay at a school like Stanford. It would take a team consistently contending for Pac-10/12 championships, the opportunity to have a legendary legacy, rabid fan support, top facilities, and market-rate compensation. Most of all, it takes the kind of coach who is interested in committing decades to that pursuit and likely not the kind who (understandably) wants to compete at the highest-profile professional level NOW.

And even that might not be enough because, as Stanford fans remember, we thought we used to have all of that with Mike Montgomery (18 seasons!).

And look how that turned out.

I’m a big football fan and I think I’m very knowledgeable about it, but I’m certainly not qualified to question any of the coach’s decisions from a football standpoint. But from a pure decision-making point of view, I find it humorous how fans and analysts alike are ripping Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 from the Patriots 30. Just check out all of the “Belichick’s so DUMB” comments on ESPN.

It was an aggressive decision, but was it unreasonable? Here are the pertinent facts from before the play:

1. Patriots were up 6 points.
2. Down was 4th-and-2 on their own 28-yard line.
3. Patriots had moved the ball pretty much at will for most of the game.
4. Peyton Manning had just led his team on two LONG touchdown drives that each took less than 2:08. The last one was 1:37. He hadn’t used a timeout on either of those drives.
5. It was the play immediately before the two-minute warning, so no booth challenges.
6. Patriots had no timeouts (had used the last two before the play), so no challenges for their benefit, period.

There is a “conventional” decision, which is definitively to punt in this situation. It’s the “safe” decision (for some reason). Almost every coach in the world is going to punt (apparently save for one). Should they? I would argue that simply saying, “You’re supposed to punt” is dumb.

As any good poker player will tell you, what matters is making the best decision with limited information. Football has the additional component of execution (whereas ‘execution’ in poker usually just means the random sequencing of the cards), but that doesn’t mean the right decision shouldn’t be made. How’s the decision supposed to be made?

1. What is the probability that you will convert that 4th-and-2? If you convert, let’s assume you win.
2. If you don’t convert, what is the probability that you can stop the Colts from scoring a touchdown?
3. What is the probability that you will stop the Colts from scoring a touchdown if you punt? Let’s assume that if the Colts do that, then the Patriots lose.

If you aren’t considering those questions, even on a gut or impulse level, then you’re not doing your job as a coach. Let’s place some estimates.

1. Let’s say the Patriots think they convert that 4th-and-2 60% of the time.
2. Let’s assume the Patriots think they have a 10% chance of stopping the Colts if they don’t convert.
3. Then, consider that the Colts are moving the ball *really* well. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that they have, say, a 40% chance of taking the punt and scoring a TD to win the game. I don’t think that’s totally crazy.

If you take those numbers into account, then it’s clear what you should do: go for it. 64% of the time, you’ll win by going for it. 60% of the time you’ll win by punting.

Now I’m not saying those are the numbers. Maybe a 40% chance of Peyton scoring is crazy high. Is it? I don’t think it is. And hey, maybe a 60% chance of converting a 4th-and-2 is crazy low. After all, over the last three years on 3rd and <3 or 4th and <3, Tom Brady is 23 of 29 (79.3%) for 221 yards.

At the end of the day, I think Belichick actually made a pretty reasonable call. I think it was the right call, even. If I was coaching the team and only worried about winning the game (i.e. not worried about losing my job), I would have made the same call. And if he was playing poker and lost the hand, he would be just considered unlucky.

Now, if you want to get on Belichick and Brady for wasting two timeouts before the play, meaning they could not challenge the spot, then be my guest. But, given Belichick’s usual decision-making, I think this can just be chalked up to results not reflecting the decision. After all, as all good poker players know, good decisions are not correlated to short-term results.

And by the way, I come out of that game (especially after also watching his press conference) liking Belichick a lot more. He clearly thought they had a better than 80% chance of converting, so he went for it. That’s belief in the system and his players.

For completeness though, I’ll go ahead and finish it off this week. Looking forward to doing some sort of actual writing on this site in the next few weeks.

Last Week: 4-11 (no joke. plus forgot to pick the Thursday game)
Overall Season Results: 118-117-4

Sunday

OAK (+13) at TB
Lots of points, even for a team with something to play for.
Pick: OAK

DET (+11) at GB
Is the fear of going 0-16 enough to inspire Detroit to a victory?
Pick: DET

DAL (+1.5) at PHI
The Eagles could very well have nothing to play for by the time this game rolls around.
Pick: DAL

NYG (+7) at MIN
Who knows how much playing time the Giants starters are actually going to get in this meaningless game for them. They did seem to really go after it last year though.
Pick: NYG

CHI (+3) at HOU
Big game still on the line for the Bears.
Pick: CHI

CAR (-2.5) at NO
Carolina still has seeding to play for. They also really should’ve won that game last week – definitely looking pretty good.
Pick: CAR

STL (+14) at ATL
Too many points for OJ not to cover that.
Pick: STL

KC (+3) at CIN
The Chiefs are playing surprisingly well.
Pick: KC

JAX (+11) at BAL
Went back-and-forth on this game, but it’s just too big a game for Baltimore not to clean this off, right (NWE’s going to win in the morning)? And they really do feed on mediocre teams.
Pick: BAL

TEN (-3) at IND
These games are awful to pick. Dungy usually sits guys in end-of-season games and Tennessee has nothing to play for either. Flip a coin, I guess.
Pick: TEN

CLE (+11) at PIT
The Browns are really awful. Ken Dorsey is a complete joke.
Pick: CLE

MIA (+3) at NYJ
I think Miami wins and sneaks into the playoffs.
Pick: MIA

NWE (-6) at BUF
I’d be extremely surprised if the Patriots lost this game with so much on the line.
Pick: NWE

SEA (+6.5) at ARI
Oddly, Cardinals actually have something to prove in this game.
Pick: ARI

WAS (+3) at SFO
Faithful.
Pick: SFO

DEN (+8) at SD
Not really confident about the NTR in situations where something meaningful is actually on the line (and players find automatic motivation), but here goes…
Pick: DEN

Last Week: 4-10-2 (wow, that’s terrible)
Overall Season Results: 114-106-4

Thursday

Totally forgot to pick. Awful.

Saturday

BAL (+4.5) at DAL
Points, please.
Pick: BAL

Sunday

PIT (-1.5) at TEN
I think this could be the Steelers year.
Pick: PIT

MIA (-4) at KC
The Chiefs are really playing quite well right now. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Pick: KC

ARI (+7.5) at NWE
Wow, not a ton of respect for the Cardinals, and honestly why should there be. Cold weather game on the East Coast. Cassel playing awesome.
Pick: NWE

CIN (+3) at CLE
I’d just like to state that Cincinnati covering against and beating Washington last week kept me from winning about 2 grand. Awesome.
Pick: CIN

PHI (-5) at WAS
Wow Philly looked good on Monday.
Pick: PHI

SF (-5.5) at STL
St. Louis can be a great remedy for red zone issues. You know, by my count, wouldn’t the Niners be a playoff team right now if 2 or 3 plays went differently this season?
Pick: SF

ATL (+3) at MIN
Atlanta hasn’t played great on the road, and Minnesota’s playing well.
Pick: MIN

NO (-7) at DET
It just seems like the Lions are going to be jacked up. They actually have something to play for.
Pick: DET

CAR (+3) at NYG
Wow, how things change quickly. The Panthers are looking very solid for a Super Bowl run after being the preseason trendy pick for like five years running.
Pick: CAR

NYJ (-4.5) at SEA
Odd line between a first-place squad and a team with three wins.
Pick: NYJ

HOU (-7) at OAK
Raiders suck.
Pick: HOU

BUF (+7) at DEN
That close game last week for the Bills was all about the Jets playing terribly.
Pick: DEN

SD (+3.5) at TB
The Norv Turner Rule, 11-4 I believe.
Pick: TB

Monday

GB (+4.5) at CHI
I’m done thinking Aaron Rodgers and company will get it together.
Pick: CHI

Last week: 7-9
Overall Season Results: 110-96-2

Thursday posted Wednesday evening