Archive for the 'football' Category
Keeping Harbaugh
These are new days for Stanford Football.
- A legitimate top-five national ranking
- Two consecutive top-two Heisman candidates
- Potential (and likely) BCS Bowl bid
- The truly bizarre sensation of SEC, Big East, Big-12, and other games we used to watch with an independent eye now actually affecting Stanford’s fate
And of course:
- The impending reality of a “Post-Harbaugh” football program.
If you read the news, Jim Harbaugh will be leaving Stanford to go to Michigan, University of Miami, the 49ers (my personal favorite, for obvious reasons), or some other NFL destination. It’s such a point of worry for Stanford fans that even Alvin Rabushka at the Hoover Institution has written a few thoughts on how we might be able to get Harbaugh to stay.
As I noted in my comment on that blog post though, getting Jim Harbaugh to stay at Stanford would take much more than a market-rate salary. Considering it’s questionable whether Stanford would even pay up for that simple prerequisite, the whole campaign feels like an inevitably-lost cause.
Take the simple fact that we Stanford fans (including myself) are so elated to be getting into a BCS Bowl game. That’s to be expected considering I never in my wildest dreams actually thought it would happen. But by definition, that means our program is not consistently competing for the Pac-10, much less the National, Championship. Coaches in the Big Money college sports don’t stay at a school like that.
Now you might say, “But he can be the one to build the Stanford program into that!” That is true. He could stay at Stanford and build a Mike Krzyzewski-like legacy, progressively turning Stanford into a national power on the level of USC, Miami, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame. It would take literally decades and he would be a legend for it… If he was able to do it.
But for every Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo, Mark Few, Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno, there are many more Tyrone Willinghams. And to be clear, Tyrone Willingham did not capture the level of success or level of interest from other schools/teams that Harbaugh has. But all it took was one.
And if we’re really honest with ourselves, Harbaugh has popped up in enough NFL rumors over the past couple of years, resulting in enough smoke, that there is definitely fire.
That’s not an important point because so many teams are interested (because it only takes one), but rather because it means Harbaugh is interested. And I think every time Harbaugh runs onto the field at Stanford Stadium with a Top 10 team and a 30% filled building, I think he asks himself: “Why isn’t this place filled? A team this good at Michigan/Miami would be selling out a building twice this size.” (As an aside, maybe the fact that basketball stadiums are so much smaller also makes it that much easier for Krzyzewski to stay at Duke.)
So yes, it is technically possible for a coach like Jim Harbaugh to stay at a school like Stanford. It would take a team consistently contending for Pac-10/12 championships, the opportunity to have a legendary legacy, rabid fan support, top facilities, and market-rate compensation. Most of all, it takes the kind of coach who is interested in committing decades to that pursuit and likely not the kind who (understandably) wants to compete at the highest-profile professional level NOW.
And even that might not be enough because, as Stanford fans remember, we thought we used to have all of that with Mike Montgomery (18 seasons!).
And look how that turned out.
No commentsSports fans and analysts could learn a lot from poker
Big anticipation among NFL fans for the Colts-Patriots game tonight. Best current rivalry in football. The game’s two biggest stars. Amazing plays all night. And an unreal finish. 35-34 Indianapolis.
I’m a big football fan and I think I’m very knowledgeable about it, but I’m certainly not qualified to question any of the coach’s decisions from a football standpoint. But from a pure decision-making point of view, I find it humorous how fans and analysts alike are ripping Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 from the Patriots 30. Just check out all of the “Belichick’s so DUMB” comments on ESPN.
It was an aggressive decision, but was it unreasonable? Here are the pertinent facts from before the play:
- Patriots were up 6 points.
- Down was 4th-and-2 on their own 28-yard line.
- Patriots had moved the ball pretty much at will for most of the game.
- Peyton Manning had just led his team on two LONG touchdown drives that each took less than 2:08. The last one was 1:37. He hadn’t used a timeout on either of those drives.
- It was the play immediately before the two-minute warning, so no booth challenges.
- Patriots had no timeouts (had used the last two before the play), so no challenges for their benefit, period.
There is a “conventional” decision, which is definitively to punt in this situation. It’s the “safe” decision (for some reason). Almost every coach in the world is going to punt (apparently save for one). Should they? I would argue that simply saying, “You’re supposed to punt” is dumb.
As any good poker player will tell you, what matters is making the best decision with limited information. Football has the additional component of execution (whereas ‘execution’ in poker usually just means the random sequencing of the cards), but that doesn’t mean the right decision shouldn’t be made. How’s the decision supposed to be made?
- What is the probability that you will convert that 4th-and-2? If you convert, let’s assume you win.
- If you don’t convert, what is the probability that you can stop the Colts from scoring a touchdown?
- What is the probability that you will stop the Colts from scoring a touchdown if you punt? Let’s assume that if the Colts do that, then the Patriots lose.
If you aren’t considering those questions, even on a gut or impulse level, then you’re not doing your job as a coach. Let’s place some estimates.
- Let’s say the Patriots think they convert that 4th-and-2 60% of the time.
- Let’s assume the Patriots think they have a 10% chance of stopping the Colts if they don’t convert.
- Then, consider that the Colts are moving the ball *really* well. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that they have, say, a 40% chance of taking the punt and scoring a TD to win the game. I don’t think that’s totally crazy.
If you take those numbers into account, then it’s clear what you should do: go for it. 64% of the time, you’ll win by going for it. 60% of the time you’ll win by punting.
Now I’m not saying those are the numbers. Maybe a 40% chance of Peyton scoring is crazy high. Is it? I don’t think it is. And hey, maybe a 60% chance of converting a 4th-and-2 is crazy low. After all, over the last three years on 3rd and <3 or 4th and <3, Tom Brady is 23 of 29 (79.3%) for 221 yards.
At the end of the day, I think Belichick actually made a pretty reasonable call. I think it was the right call, even. If I was coaching the team and only worried about winning the game (i.e. not worried about losing my job), I would have made the same call. And if he was playing poker and lost the hand, he would be just considered unlucky.
Now, if you want to get on Belichick and Brady for wasting two timeouts before the play, meaning they could not challenge the spot, then be my guest. But, given Belichick’s usual decision-making, I think this can just be chalked up to results not reflecting the decision. After all, as all good poker players know, good decisions are not correlated to short-term results.
And by the way, I come out of that game (especially after also watching his press conference) liking Belichick a lot more. He clearly thought they had a better than 80% chance of converting, so he went for it. That’s belief in the system and his players.
No commentsNFL 2008 Picks: Week 17
I’m going to be honest, I’m pretty tired of picking games at this point. That’s what happens when your two worst weeks happen to also coincide with two consecutive weekends of placing wagers in Nevada sportsbooks. It was pretty awful.
For completeness though, I’ll go ahead and finish it off this week. Looking forward to doing some sort of actual writing on this site in the next few weeks.
Last Week: 4-11 (no joke. plus forgot to pick the Thursday game)
Overall Season Results: 118-117-4
Sunday
OAK (+13) at TB
Lots of points, even for a team with something to play for.
Pick: OAK
DET (+11) at GB
Is the fear of going 0-16 enough to inspire Detroit to a victory?
Pick: DET
DAL (+1.5) at PHI
The Eagles could very well have nothing to play for by the time this game rolls around.
Pick: DAL
NYG (+7) at MIN
Who knows how much playing time the Giants starters are actually going to get in this meaningless game for them. They did seem to really go after it last year though.
Pick: NYG
CHI (+3) at HOU
Big game still on the line for the Bears.
Pick: CHI
CAR (-2.5) at NO
Carolina still has seeding to play for. They also really should’ve won that game last week – definitely looking pretty good.
Pick: CAR
STL (+14) at ATL
Too many points for OJ not to cover that. 
Pick: STL
KC (+3) at CIN
The Chiefs are playing surprisingly well.
Pick: KC
JAX (+11) at BAL
Went back-and-forth on this game, but it’s just too big a game for Baltimore not to clean this off, right (NWE’s going to win in the morning)? And they really do feed on mediocre teams.
Pick: BAL
TEN (-3) at IND
These games are awful to pick. Dungy usually sits guys in end-of-season games and Tennessee has nothing to play for either. Flip a coin, I guess.
Pick: TEN
CLE (+11) at PIT
The Browns are really awful. Ken Dorsey is a complete joke.
Pick: CLE
MIA (+3) at NYJ
I think Miami wins and sneaks into the playoffs.
Pick: MIA
NWE (-6) at BUF
I’d be extremely surprised if the Patriots lost this game with so much on the line.
Pick: NWE
SEA (+6.5) at ARI
Oddly, Cardinals actually have something to prove in this game.
Pick: ARI
WAS (+3) at SFO
Faithful.
Pick: SFO
DEN (+8) at SD
Not really confident about the NTR in situations where something meaningful is actually on the line (and players find automatic motivation), but here goes…
Pick: DEN
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 16
The wheels are definitely falling off the bus here. Not only did I get pounded last week on my picks (good week to go to Vegas!), but I completely spaced on getting my pick in for this evening’s game. I’d like to state for the record (like an idiot) that I would have picked the Colts to cover the 6 points, but ah well.
Last Week: 4-10-2 (wow, that’s terrible)
Overall Season Results: 114-106-4
Thursday
Totally forgot to pick. Awful.
Saturday
BAL (+4.5) at DAL
Points, please.
Pick: BAL
Sunday
PIT (-1.5) at TEN
I think this could be the Steelers year.
Pick: PIT
MIA (-4) at KC
The Chiefs are really playing quite well right now. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Pick: KC
ARI (+7.5) at NWE
Wow, not a ton of respect for the Cardinals, and honestly why should there be. Cold weather game on the East Coast. Cassel playing awesome.
Pick: NWE
CIN (+3) at CLE
I’d just like to state that Cincinnati covering against and beating Washington last week kept me from winning about 2 grand. Awesome.
Pick: CIN
PHI (-5) at WAS
Wow Philly looked good on Monday.
Pick: PHI
SF (-5.5) at STL
St. Louis can be a great remedy for red zone issues. You know, by my count, wouldn’t the Niners be a playoff team right now if 2 or 3 plays went differently this season?
Pick: SF
ATL (+3) at MIN
Atlanta hasn’t played great on the road, and Minnesota’s playing well.
Pick: MIN
NO (-7) at DET
It just seems like the Lions are going to be jacked up. They actually have something to play for.
Pick: DET
CAR (+3) at NYG
Wow, how things change quickly. The Panthers are looking very solid for a Super Bowl run after being the preseason trendy pick for like five years running.
Pick: CAR
NYJ (-4.5) at SEA
Odd line between a first-place squad and a team with three wins.
Pick: NYJ
HOU (-7) at OAK
Raiders suck.
Pick: HOU
BUF (+7) at DEN
That close game last week for the Bills was all about the Jets playing terribly.
Pick: DEN
SD (+3.5) at TB
The Norv Turner Rule, 11-4 I believe.
Pick: TB
Monday
GB (+4.5) at CHI
I’m done thinking Aaron Rodgers and company will get it together.
Pick: CHI
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 15
Big weekend for NFL-watching as I’ll be in Las Vegas placing wagers on these games and my fantasy team will be locked in a mortal death match with Kingsley’s:
As you can see, it would be a total travesty if that squad was to lose to CharlesHaleyFanClub. I also have to remember to pack my Brent Jones jersey for Vegas so I can scream obscenities at Dolphins fans and come off as a passionate fan instead of a crazy person.
Last week: 7-9
Overall Season Results: 110-96-2
Thursday posted Wednesday evening
NO (+2.5) at CHI
Cold weather and Chicago’s tough at home. They should be pretty jacked up in a game with huge playoff implications. Edit (3:13pm Pacific): actually, I made that pick and now have this sick feeling the Saints are going to run it up. I’m switching it up. After all, who has Chicago beaten?
Pick: NO
Sunday
GB (-2.5) at JAX
Two struggling teams, but the Jaguars are a disaster, losing games and skill position players left and right.
Pick: GB
DET (+17) at IND
Haven’t heard many folks jumping on the Indy bandwagon as a Super Bowl possibility yet, so I’ll stake my claim to it now.
Pick: IND
WAS (-7) at CIN
Cincinnati is terrible and the ‘Skins are angry.
Pick: WAS
TB (+3) at ATL
Apparently that Tampa defense CAN be run on. The Bucs haven’t played well on the road.
Pick: ATL
SF (+6.5) at MIA
In all likelihood, not having Gore will prove to be a huge issue, but Miami’s been having some trouble blowing folks out. If the spread looks like this in Vegas, I’ll probably tease this a point and pair it with the under on 41. Should be a pretty good defensive football game.
Pick:
SEA (-3) at STL
Both team have been awful, though St. Louis has been significantly worse. True story: in one of my old Madden franchises in college, I turned Seneca Wallace into a 5-time Pro Bowler for the 49ers at QB before he became too expensive to keep.
Pick: SEA
BUF (+7) at NYJ
I’m a firm believer you can’t win games with JP Losman. Jets are poised for a big bounce-back week after two pretty embarrassing losses on the road.
Pick: NYJ
TEN (-3) at HOU
I’ve been liking what Houston has been doing, but not this much.
Pick: TEN
PIT (+2.5) at BAL
I like both these teams, but at the end of the day you really just have to trust Big Ben a little more than a rookie going against the #1 defense, don’t you?
Pick: PIT
DEN (+7.5) at CAR
Feels like this game has ‘letdown’ written all over it.
Pick: DEN
SD (-5.5) at KC
I’m sticking with the Norv Turner Rule.
Pick: KC
MIN (+3) at ARI
Arizona seemingly has the right kind of offense (read: heavy on the pass) to attack the Minnesota defense. Their run defense is also surprisingly solid.
Pick: ARI
NWE (-7) at OAK
Even the battered Patriots should be able to run on Oakland. When you pair that with what will probably be an inability by the Raiders to take advantage of the Patriots’ injuries on defense…
Pick: NWE
NYG (+3) at DAL
No Brandon Jacobs, but probably a strong bounce-back game by the Giants in this one. Odd to see an 11-2 team getting 3 points.
Pick: NYG
Monday
CLE (+14) at PHI
This is me, not trusting the Eagles yet.
Pick: CLE
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 14
Go Niners!
That’s it…
Last week: 6-10
Overall Season Results: 103-87-2
Thursday posted Wednesday evening
OAK (+9.5) at SD
The NTR is 9-3 on the season. That being said, this is one of those classic games where two airtight rules face off: the Norv Turner Rule and the Raiders Letdown Games rule (“Raiders will play awful for 2-3 games after any win”). Oakland actually played the Chargers pretty tough earlier this year though (held them to 3 points through 3 quarters). Only a few of late touchdowns turned it into a comfortable win for San Diego.
Pick: OAK
Sunday
CIN (+13.5) at IND
Decimated by injuries, Cincinnati had a brutal couple of weeks against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Having some balance on offense shouldn’t be as difficult against a Colts run defense that is 25th in the league. Plus the Colts haven’t been blowing a lot of teams out. Crazy pick, I know…
Pick: CIN
JAX (+6.5) at CHI
Tough sledding for the Jacksonville run game coming up in this game.
Pick: CHI
HOU (+6) at GB
The Texans have actually played just about every team (save for the really tough defensive clubs) closely this year. With Slaton moving the ball on the ground, Schaub/Rosenfels getting the ball to Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams playing like he should…
Pick: HOU
CLE (+13.5) at TEN
Ken Dorsey is starting at QB for the Browns. Ken Dorsey. On the road. Against one of the NFL’s best defenses. I’m envisioning at least one pick-six.
Pick: TEN
MIN (-10) at DET
The Vikings are playing really well right now and Detroit is Detroit. It looks like the Williams’ are going to play on Sunday, so tough sledding on the ground for Lions.
Pick: MIN
WAS (+5.5) at BAL
Enormous game for the ‘Skins, and I think they’re going to show up. Two stellar defenses should keep the score low. Flacco’s only seen one defense this tough in the last seven games, a 10-30 loss to the Giants.
Pick: WAS
PHI (+6.5) at NYG
I’m glad I snagged this one at 6.5 (seems to be bouncing around a lot right now), because I don’t really see that Philly win last week translating into anything close to a victory on the road against the NFL’s best team.
Pick: NYG
ATL (+3) at NO
Big shootout coming up in New Orleans. It’s not every day that an 8-4 team is a dog to a 6-6 team in the same division, but that seems to indicate a lack of belief in Atlanta. I’ve been made into a believer though.
Pick: ATL
NYJ (-4) at SFO
Niner fan or not, I’m not expecting a cover here, even with the Jets on a long west-cost road tilt. Nate Clements may be out for the game to boot.
Pick: NYJ
MIA (+1) at BUF
The Bills are in a true free-fall. JP Losman is usually good for 3 great plays and at the very least 2 TO’s in any game he plays.
Pick: MIA
KC (+9) at DEN
You just never know what’s going to happen with those crazy Denver Broncos. But we do know that LJ should have a solid day on the ground (assuming KC doesn’t fall behind early) against a horrible Broncos run defense.
Pick: KC
STL (+14) at ARI
Let’s get it started: OJ Atogwe for the Pro Bowl. C’mon people, let’s make it happen.
Pick: STL
DAL (+3) at PIT
The Cowboys are healthier, but I don’t think they’re tough. Bad weather game in the cold of Pittsburgh? I’m not seeing it.
Pick: PIT
NWE (-4.5) at SEA
I did a severe double-take when I saw this spread. Did people just not watch that game Dallas game last week?
Pick: NWE
Monday
TB (-3) at CAR
Biggest game in NFC South history (according to the sportswriters). Tampa Bay has played some questionable football on the road though. Carolina’s defense should be poised for a nice bounceback game at home.
Pick: CAR
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 13
Rough start to this week already with a 1-2 record on Thursday. Clearly the NFC West is even more of a joke than I previously thought.
Last week: 9-7
Overall Season Results: 97-77-2
Thursday posted Wednesday evening
TEN (-11) at DET
An ugly pair of games we’ve got early in the day. Given the current state of the franchise, shouldn’t we be banning Detroit from Thanksgiving day games?
Pick: TEN
SEA (+12.5) at DAL
A lot of points to cover. I may sound like a total homer, but without a couple of coverage breakdowns and bad calls last week, the Niners were in that game.
Pick: SEA
ARI (+3) at PHI
The Cardinals really hung with the Giants last weekend actually. And I don’t think Philadelphia’s problems magically go away with McNabb back in the saddle playing inspired football (which is not a certainty anyway). Late start time = good for the Cardinals
Pick: ARI
Sunday
DEN (+7.5) at NYJI can’t really recall a team being a 9-point favorite one week and a 7+ point dog the next, but that’s what happens when you get crushed by the Raiders. Anyone who watched that game has to be picking against Denver this week.
Pick: NYJ
SFO (+7) at BUF
If you think I’m enough of a homer to pick the Niners when they’re traveling cross-country to play an early game in the snow without their top two return men, remember that this is about trying to pick games right. Edwards plays well when he has time to operate and Buffalo’s used to the weather.
Pick: BUF
NO (+3.5) at TB
Saints are 1-4 on the road this season and Tampa Bay just happen to be undefeated at home. The Bucs are a really solid team defensively and should do a much better job of slowing down the Saints than the Packers did this week.
Pick: TB
CAR (+3) at GB
Both of these teams are now totally off the radar as far as playing to their expected potentials. I like a hungry Green Bay team at home against a Carolina squad that has not played well on the road all season.
Pick: GB
NYG (-3.5) at WAS
I don’t know how anyone who’s paying attention right now isn’t expecting the Giants to run over just about everyone. Maybe Portis goes nuts and Campbell & Co. move the ball, but it’s difficult to expect that at all.
Pick: NYG
MIA (-8) at STL
St. Louis is the worst of the NFC West. See above comment about the NFC West
Pick: MIA
BAL (-7) at CIN
Cincinnati’s reaching new levels for the term ‘decimated by injury’. Tough to imagine them moving the ball on the ground or through the air in this one.
Pick: BAL
IND (-5.0) at CLE
Peyton’s now looking like… Peyton Manning. Even 108-year old Marvin Harrison is getting hit in the hands with passes. Maybe Derek Anderson’ll give them a spark, but the Browns look to be in serious disarray.
Pick: IND
ATL (+5) at SD
Big win by the Falcons last week. It’s like Matt Ryan’s not even a rookie QB now. The NTR is now 8-3 on the season.
Pick: ATL
PIT (+1) at NWE
If Cassel puts up 400 yards on THIS team, then it’s probably time to start the ‘Trade Brady to San Francisco’ chants. Willie Parker might be out, but they should be able to move the ball on the ground regardless.
Pick: PIT
KC (+3) at OAK
The Chiefs have had a very rough schedule the last five weeks and they’ve already got a 23-8 loss to the Raiders this season. But they have a QB now and theoretically some balance on offense with Larry Johnson back. The Raiders aren’t as good as they looked last week.
Pick: KC
CHI (+3.5) at MIN
This game appears to be dead-even just about every way I look at it. Chicago seems like a bit more of a complete team and the Vikings pass offense is largely inconsistent. I’ll take the meager points here.
Pick: CHI
Monday
JAX (+3.5) at HOU
Both of these teams are playing fairly mediocre, but Jacksonville appears to be in much more disarray. Houston should be able to run on the Jaguars.
Pick: HOU
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 12
I’d like to take credit for how masterfully I picked those games last week (12-4, in case anyone’s scoring at home), but the truth is it’s luck. Or rather, random variance. Luck would be if I had just randomly started picking games for a week last week.
The truth is that I started the season guessing that my approximate win percentage on a per-game basis would be approximately 52-55% (52.38% would be essentially break-even with the house). 88-70-2 is slightly better than 55%, which means I’m probably just a tad outside of the mean and I would probably expect to see some reverting back in the direction of even over the next couple of weeks. That being said:
- The NFL season is highly-variant on a per-week or even per-month basis (the small number of games makes it so), and
- Individual NFL games deviate dramatically from expected value often, due to the large percentage of a game’s total score that a single play can have. Case in point: an incorrect call by the officials swinging an 8-point Steelers win to a 1-point Steelers win last week.
All of that is a long way of saying: things have gone pretty much as expected for the season.
Last week: 12-4
Overall Season Results: 88-70-2
Thursday
CIN (+11) at PIT
[Note: picked this game on Thursday morning.] Hard to imagine Cincinnati being able to move the ball on the ground (or in the air without Ocho Cinco) in this game.
Pick: PIT
Sunday
HOU (+3) at CLE
The really good sign last week was Brady Quinn hooking up with Braylon Edwards several times. I think Winslow probably plays in this game and the Browns get it done.
Pick: CLE
BUF (-3) at KC
Well that Buffalo Bills bandwagon fell apart in a quick hurry. You can tell because they’re giving up three points to a 1-9 team. Really?
Pick: BUF
NYJ (+5.5) at TEN
This pretty much comes down to which Brett Favre shows up. But if we let ourselves lose the cynicism for a moment, maybe Favre is really settling in with his new team and has brought some effective balance to the Jets.
Pick: NYJ
NWE (+1.5) at MIA
Very different Pats team from the one that got stomped on in Week 3 and ended my Survivor League season.
Pick: NWE
SFO (+10) at DAL
I still think the Niners are better than most folks think. I’m also incredibly biased.
Pick: SFO
TB (-8.5) at DET
I can already see the dirty backdoor cover showing up here. Tampa’s a solid team but they usually end up playing a ton of close games and don’t stomp on teams on the road.
Pick: DET
PHI (+1.5) at BAL
Westbrook beat up and the Eagles not looking hot. Baltimore got bludgeoned by the Giants last week, but who isn’t getting crushed by Eli and company lately?
Pick: BAL
CHI (-7.5) at STL
I saw it in-person last week: the Rams are awful.
Pick: CHI
MIN (+2) at JAX
Jacksonville’s run defense hasn’t been stout – I think AP has a big day against the Jaguars.
Pick: MIN
CAR (+1) at ATL
Bounceback game for the Panthers after two subpar performances against the two worst teams in the league.
Pick: CAR
OAK (+9) at DEN
Shanahan LOVES to run it up on Al Davis’ team whenever possible. You have to love the guys who don’t EVER let old grudges die…
Pick: DEN
WAS (-3.5) at SEA
Slightly bizarre line to me. It’s Matt Hasselbeck, not Joe Montana, right? I understand that stadium is hard to play in, but…
Pick: WAS
NYG (-3.5) at ARI
I think oddsmakers are thinking that sports gamblers are going to be swayed by Arizona’s lofty-looking record, but 4 of their wins have been against the NFC West and the other three were against Miami (pre-Wildcat), Buffalo, and a Romo-less Dallas team.
Pick: NYG
IND (+3) at SD
Norv Turner was able to score a victory over the NTR last week on the basis of a shitty call by the officials at the end of the game. Ouch. 7-3 on the season is still a pretty solid start. Good signs from the Indy running game last weekend.
Pick: IND
Monday
GB (+2.5) at NO
Packers are playing well right now. They’re 1-2 over the past three games, but could just as easily have been 3-0.
Pick: GB
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 11
I had a couple of questions a few days ago from folks about the NTR (Norv Turner Rule). The question basically was: “Isn’t it kind of lame that you take this random rule to pick each week’s game for San Diego? I thought the point was that you’re picking games based on some sort of actual knowledge instead of just having random pet rules.”
That’s probably my fault for not thoroughly explaining the Norv Turner Rule. The rule actually originated during the 2004 and 2005 season, when Turner was coaching the Raiders. During those seasons, I would usually be forced into watching Raiders games due to the NFL’s broadcast rules. What I saw was a man (with a tremendous track record as an offensive coordinator, by the way) who has absolutely no business being an NFL coach. What stood out was not so much the losing, as it was the complete lack of preparation and passion from his teams.
Fast forward to last year when Turner got the job from the Chargers. Here was a sportsbetting dream: an awful coach with unreal talent on his sideline. Talent so strong that they could coast through the majority of games and win. Sure, every fifth game or so, the Chargers would really come to play and obliterate their opponents. But with Norv Turner at the helm, you could be sure that they wouldn’t do so consistently. Yet, since they’re so talented, their record would continue to look impressive, which would lead to oddsmakers assuming (correctly) that gamblers would respect that.
I have to admit, I was a bit worried about the NTR at the start of the season when San Diego lost a couple of top talents (Merriman, etc.), but Rivers has played well enough to keep their record decent, leading to ridiculous spreads like -14.5 last week against Kansas City.
By the way, the NTR is 7-2 this season.
Last week: 10-4
Overall Season Results: 76-66-2
Thursday
NYJ (+3) at NWE
[Note: posted this before Thursday evening's game.] Surprising balance lately by the Jets offense and their defense has been pretty stout as well. Short week is generally relatively better for teams facing Belichick (longer the week, more time for his crazy adjustments).
Pick: NYJ
Sunday
DEN (+6) at ATL
Lots of points here, especially against an explosive offense like Denver. I do like what’s going on in Atlanta, but Cutler has his full complement of receivers back. Not having a legitimate tailback shouldn’t slow them down that much.
Pick: DEN
OAK (+10.5) at MIA
Normally I would scoff at a spread this outrageous for Miami – they’re just not the kind of group that blows other people out a lot. The offense isn’t really built that way. But this is the Raiders. It’s bizarre to think they actually beat the Jets.
Pick: MIA
BAL (+6.5) at NYG
Interesting how the Giants have turned into a genuinely dominant team. Monster running game, diverse passing game (with a smart QB), and a brutal defense. Throw in homefield advantage and an inconsistent Baltimore team…
Pick: NYG
HOU (+7.5) at IND
Indy needed several really poor decisions by Big Ben to pull out that win last week. With Slaton back this week, the Texans should be able to keep it close and possibly pull this out.
Pick: HOU
TEN (-3) at JAX
We’re supposed to be on the Jacksonville bandwagon because they ran all over Detroit last week? Not buying it.
Pick: TEN
CHI (+3.5) at GB
Two really rough losses for the Packers, leading to this game to basically decide whether their season is over. I like Rodgers to go nuts on the battered Chicago secondary.
Pick: GB
PHI (-9) at CIN
That’s an awful lot of points for any team to be favored on the road. Cincinnati, coming off a bye week, was starting to look almost decent a few weeks ago.
Pick: CIN
NO (-5.5) at KC
LJ’s back and should help give KC some good balance on offense. Brees and company are in a bit of a free fall.
Pick: KC
DET (+14) at CAR
Bounce-back game this week for Carolina, after zombie-walking past Oakland. Playing at home, against Daunte Culpepper looks like a good place to start.
Pick: CAR
MIN (+4) at TB
Home-field advantage in the NFC South means a lot. Tampa’s defense matches up well with Minnesota I think.
Pick: TB
STL (+6.5) at SFO
I maybe be a total homer, but I don’t see how a Jackson-less Rams team can stick with San Francisco when I’m in the stands cheering.
Pick: SFO
ARI (-3) at SEA
So… Seattle’s homefield advantage is pretty solid. And Hasselbeck is back. And the Niners weren’t a great win last week… But 3 points?
Pick: ARI
SD (+4.5) at PIT
I’ve got to admit, San Diego looks tempting this week with injuries and other problems pointing in their direction. But after writing that above post, I can’t go pick the Chargers, can I?
Pick: PIT
DAL (-1.5) at WAS
Romo back, bigger role for Roy E. Williams. It should all lead to better running lanes for Barber against a Portis-like Redskins team.
Pick: DAL
Monday
CLE (+5.5) at BUF
Buffalo is in a real free fall and the Cleveland defense is actually pretty stout. Long week of prep for the rookie QB to go on the road probably means he’ll be decently prepared.
Pick: CLE
NFL 2008 Picks: Week 10
My favorite storyline of this season has been the outrageousness that is the Oakland Raiders franchise. I won’t re-hash the Lane Kiffin hilarity, but let’s take a quick look at the DeAngelo Hall saga:
- In the offseason, the Raiders traded 2nd and 5th round picks for DeAngelo Hall, a cornerback who went to the Pro Bowl last year. They did this against Kiffin’s opinions.
- Hall played eight games for the Raiders this season, getting paid $1M PER GAME. He was dusted several times for long gains, playing opposite the Raiders star CB Nnamdi Asomugha.
- The Raiders unceremoniously cut him yesterday, basically lighting their two draft picks on fire and releasing a very talented player
- Now other Raiders players are speaking out, saying things like: “I’ve never been in a situation where you cut one of the best players,” and “I am just a player so I can’t speak on it. I don’t make the decisions…. we’re just supposed to shut up and play.”
Good times! It really makes me relieved to be a Niners fan. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Last week: 9-5
Overall Season Results: 66-62-2
Thursday
DEN (+3) at CLE
If there was a good time to start out as a first-time QB, it’s against the awful Broncos defense. Denver is reeling and just can’t stop the run. Look for Jamal Lewis to get a lot of work on the ground.
Pick: CLE
Sunday
JAX (-6) at DET
I’m having trouble understanding why Jacksonville is playing so badly. They can’t even run the ball anymore against normal NFL teams. Luckily Detroit is less than a normal NFL team.
Pick: JAX
TEN (-3) at CHI
Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s get ahold of ourselves here. Isn’t one of these teams 8-0 and didn’t the other team almost lose to the Lions last week? Chicago might play inspired ball and pull this off, but the spread seems bizarre.
Pick: TEN
BUF (+4) at NWE
If the Bills lose this game, they’ll be in a serious hole. It’s bizarre that they’ve been unable to run the ball. And Trent Edwards just isn’t (yet) the kind of QB that can carry a team for 16 games.
Pick: NWE
NO (+1) at ATL
I do like what the Falcons are doing right now, but Brees and company should have a good day. Colston should finally be back at full speed.
Pick: NO
STL (+9) at NYJ
Too many points. The Rams didn’t look great last week, but Favre and company can’t really trusted to stomp on teams every week. I’m thinking OJ gets a pick or two in this one.
Pick: STL
SEA (+9) at MIA
I still can’t believe the Niners lost to this team…
Pick: MIA
GB (+2.5) at MIN
Who would’ve thought that Gus Frerotte would be the biggest gunslinger in a game between the Vikings and the Packers?
Pick: MIN
CAR (-9) at OAK
Clearly the Raiders’ release of DeAngelo Hall is going to solve all their problems. After all, it’s not like the Falcons left treadmarks all over them last week.
Pick: CAR
KC (+14.5) at SD
The Norv Turner Rule is definitely poised to move to 7-2 on the season this week. The Chiefs are playing much better and Norv Turner was once the head coach of the Raiders.
Pick: KC
IND (+3) at PIT
For real this tim, Peyton and co. are getting it together.
Pick: IND
NYG (+2.5) at PHI
At what point did Eli Manning become the brother who was more reliable and less likely to throw some outrageous picks? I feel like they roll in this game.
Pick: NYG
BAL (-1) at HOU
Sage Rosenfels is like Matt Schaub… ‘s Dad. Who needs Willis McGahee when you’ve got Ray Rice and company?
Pick: BAL
Monday
SF (+9.5) at ARI
I’m pretty confident that Shaun Hill can keep this game close – it also sounds like the Niners will be pounding the run a bit more, which will be a welcome change.
Pick: SF
