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Another Sunday, another horrific weekend that pulls me down below the .500 mark for the season. Remember that remark I made last week about never having picked every team that was favored by 7+ points? Well, not only did all of them not cover, but all but one of them lost. Wow.

I’m making some small tweaks to my picks methodology this week (after all, this year’s the first time I’ve ever picked the full slate of games every week). It definitely needs some work.

Last week: 5-9
Overall Season Results: 42-44-2

Sunday

TEN (-8) at KC
The Chiefs have done very poorly against tough defenses, including a 0-34 loss against Carolina a few weeks ago. Now they have no LJ. Tennessee looks like the best (or at least most consistent) team in football at this point.
Pick: TEN

SD (PK) at BUF
I think my Norv Turner rule is something like 4-2 this season. San Diego has a history of tanking hangover games and has been pretty mediocre on the road. Cross-country trips West to East are tough.
Pick: BUF

PIT (-9.5) at CIN
This line’s mostly similar to a -7.5 line and I certainly wouldn’t pick the Bengals (0-6, no Carson) at +7.5.
Pick: PIT

BAL (-3) at MIA
Baltimore burned me last week. They’re clearly one of those teams that can battle in the trenches, but can never come from behind or succeed in a shoot-out. It’s just difficult to expect Flacco to win on the road for them.
Pick: MIA

DAL (-7) at STL
OJ finally had a Sportscenter-level play last week, so it’s time to start giving the Rams some love. Donnie Avery’ll get loose for a score in this one.
Pick: STL

MIN (+3) at CHI
Tricky game. Two stout run defenses. Two bad secondaries. Orton is looking good though, and Chicago’s played pretty well at home. Plus they’re coming off that embarrassment last week.
Pick: CHI

NO (+3) at CAR
Carolina hasn’t lost at home, New Orleans hasn’t won on the road. The homefield advantage in those NFC South stadiums is real.
Pick: CAR

SF (+10.5) at NYG
Look, maybe the Giants were just in a slump last week and they’ll come back hungry on Sunday. Maybe. Or maybe their front 7 legitimately struggled. Either way, I’m taking the points and rooting hard.
Pick: SF

DET (+8.5) at HOU
This is the week!… for the Lions to get back to their ways of losing by 14+. Andre Johnson could end up with 900 yards receiving.
Pick: HOU

NYJ (-3) at OAK
Lost in the Brett Favre hyperbole is the fact that the Jets defense has been surprisingly good, yardage wise (11th in the league).
Pick: NYJ

CLE (+7.5) at WAS
Should be a great game, now that Cleveland picked up the pace last week. Cleveland’s defense has been very underrated and the offense is putting it together.
Pick: CLE

IND (-1.5) at GB
It’s Peyton Manning time
Pick: IND

SEA (+10.5) at TB
I thought the Seahawks were in big trouble BEFORE Hasselbeck went down. See above comments from NO vs. CAR game.
Pick: TB

Monday

DEN (+3) at NWE
Denver’s struggled with a couple of stout defenses in a row, but I’m not sure the Patriots qualify as that anymore. This one’ll be a shootout and I like Cutler over Cassel in that kind of a game.
Pick: DEN

Good week last week. Gotta keep it going…

Last Week: 9-3-2
Overall Season Results: 37-35-2

Sunday

OAK (+7.5) at NO
I’ve got a feeling that the Tom Cable era in Oakland is not going to go well. New Orleans looking for a bounceback after all those mistakes against Minnesota.
Pick: NO

BAL (+4) at IND
How lucky was Indy to pull that game out last week? After back-to-back smashmouth losses to Pittsburgh and Tennessee, I think the Ravens pull this one out by dominating on the ground.
Pick: BAL

CIN (+7.5) at NYJ
No Carson in this game. I have a feeling this’ll be off the board or moved dramatically by Sunday. It’s a good thing I got in!
Pick: NYJ

CAR (+1.5) at TB
Big game in the NFC South and I think Carolina starts separating from the pack this week. Jeff Garcia is old.
Pick: CAR

DET (+13.5) at MIN
Detroit does not look like an NFL football team. I wonder if it’s possible for AP to run for 900 yards in a game.
Pick: MIN

CHI (-3) at ATL
Defense getting back to full strength? Check. Professional QB? Check.
Pick: CHI

MIA (+3) at HOU
Hear that? That’s the sound of me leaping onto the Dolphins bandwagon with two feet. Strong running game, efficient QB, tricky Wildcat offense, chip on their shoulder, growing confidence. I’m sold for this week.
Pick: MIA

STL (+13.5) at WAS
Washington = on a roll. The Rams look horrendous.
Pick: WAS

JAX (+3.5) at DEN
Cutler’s been great at home. With no Eddie Royal or Tony Scheffler, it’s Brandon Stokley time.
Pick: DEN

PHI (-5) at SFO
I hate doing this for the second straight week for a game I will be attending, but the Niners just haven’t protected the QB at all this season. Not a good recipe when Jim Johnson’s blitzing defense comes to town.
Pick: PHI

DAL (-4.5) at ARI
I did a slight double-take when I saw this line. I’m just not on the Cardinals bandwagon.
Pick: DAL

GB (+1.5) at SEA
It used to be that the Seattle homefield advantage was worth 3-4 points. I still don’t see how that would get them to a win in this game.
Pick: GB

NWE (+5.5) at SD
You’ve probably realized the pattern by now: when you have an opportunity to pick against Norv Turner and a bum LT toe, you take that opportunity.
Pick: NWE

Monday

NYG (-7.5) at CLE
This is probably the first week I’ve ever picked every team that was favored by >7 points. I’d like to say Cleveland can get their act together coming off a bye, but the Giants are killing right now.
Pick: NYG

It’s turning ugly in a hurry. I really have no excuses. The only bright side is that if I was putting a lot of money on all of these games, I’d be extremely depressed. Woo!

Last Week: 5-8
Overall Season Results: 28-32-0

Sunday

IND (-3) at HOU
Indy, coming off a buy week, offensive line mostly healthy… I’m going with Peyton, even on the road.
Pick: IND

TEN (-3) at BAL
Tennessee looks like it’s on a mission. They won’t be able to run a lot in this defensive struggle, but I think they’ll survive.
Pick: TEN

SD (-7) at MIA
Time to go back to the “If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, take that opportunity” rule.
Pick: MIA

KC (+9.5) at CAR
Carolina’s getting their legs under them. Unless their offense makes as many mistakes as Denver last week, I’m envisioning a big win at home.
Pick: CAR

WAS (+6) at PHI
The Redskins were great last week on the road in Dallas. Campbell looks very under control and should be able to handle the myriad blitzes from Jim Johnson.
Pick: WAS

CHI (-3.5) at DET
Tough schedule for the Bears so far, and they’ve emerged 2-2. Running lanes should be aplenty for them in this game.
Pick: CHI

ATL (+4) at GB
That Green Bay defense should be able to carry the team at home.
Pick: GB

SEA (+7) at NYG
No Plaxico for the Giants and Seattle gets some real wide receivers back. I’ll take the points.
Pick: SEA

TB (+3) at DEN
How surprising was that Denver-KC game last week? Here’s hoping that Denver offense doesn’t make so many mistakes again.
Pick: DEN

NWE (-3) at SFO
As a Niners fan, this is a trap game. Belichick’s had two weeks to prepare and they’re hungry. I’m playing Sammy Morris in every fantasy league I have him. I hope I’m wrong.
Pick: NWE

BUF (+1) at ARI
At some point Buffalo’s going to stumble, they’ve been close two weeks in a row, but not this week.
Pick: BUF

CIN (+16.5) at DAL
That is a LOT of points. If Carson plays, Cincy should be able to put points on the board against this DAL secondary.
Pick: CIN

PIT (+4.5) at JAX
The Steelers pulled out a great win against Baltimore on Monday. It looks like they’ve figured out how to work around their offensive line problems by having their defense carry them.
Pick: PIT

Monday

MIN (+3) at NO
Sounds crazy, but I wasn’t that impressed by New Orleans last week. AP should be able run.
Pick: MIN

Last week was pretty bittersweet. The good news was the Niners stomped out Detroit (and I was there to witness it). The bad news was I got punted out of my $100 Survivor League (under what planet does New England get destroyed by 5 Ronnie Brown TD’s?) and then got trounced in my picks.

Not much more to say – here’s hoping it goes better this week.

Last Week: 6-10 (ugh)
Overall Season Results: 23-24-0

Sunday

DEN (-9) at KC
Let’s see, Denver’ll score 35+. Kansas City hasn’t scored 20 in a game yet.
Pick: DEN

CLE (+3.5) at CIN
Here’s hoping it’s another “Last team with the ball wins” game. Cincinnati looked good last week, surprisingly. I think they get it together first.
Pick: CIN

HOU (+7) at JAX
Jacksonville’s O-line is getting healthy at the right time and you KNOW they don’t want to go 1-3.
Pick: JAX

ARI (+1.5) at NYJ
One of these weeks, Favre’s going to get comfortable, but he still looked bad last week.
Pick: ARI

SFO (+5) at NO
Heard Martz on the radio today and he seemed pretty confident in our ability to move the ball on NO, particularly against their secondary. I’m in.
Pick: SFO

ATL (+7) at CAR
Still not quite sure what to make of this Carolina team, but they should be able to run well to set up the pass in this matchup. They were one bad turnover from having full control of that game last week.
Pick: CAR

MIN (+3) at TEN
Tennessee’s defense is beastly against the run and, lo and behold, Minnesota needs to run to be successful.
Pick: TEN

GB (+1.5) at TB
Bounce-back game for Green Bay, but they need to stop the run. The loss of Al Harris can’t hurt them that much against Brian Griese, can it?
Pick: GB

BUF (-8) at STL
St. Louis decided to do the chic thing, by benching their QB and cutting their most talented CB. Not looking pretty out there.
Pick: BUF

SD (-7.5) at OAK
San Diego secondary playing better, so I’m imagining 8 men in the box a lot. If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, do so… unless they’re playing the Raiders.
Pick: SD

WAS (+11) at DAL
Spreads like this are always a bit tricky, after all, Dallas could dominate a game and end up winning by ten. But this one’s in Dallas, fierce rivalry, I don’t see Dallas getting off the gas.
Pick: DAL

PHI (-3) at CHI
Westbrook should be out, so the Eagles will probably go pass-heavy. The luster of Chicago’s win over a short-handed Indy has being rusted over with back-to-back losses.
Pick: PHI

Monday

BAL (-5.5) at PIT
Injuries say BAL will have a field day on the ground, but I’m imagining a low-scoring close game.
Pick: PIT

The volatility of NFL outcomes continues to show itself. By my count, last week I could have very easily gone 12-3 and just as easily gone 6-9.

For instance, at one point late in the second half last week, Green Bay was actually down 24-25. If Rodgers doesn’t complete a couple of big throws, they don’t pull back ahead and Kitna doesn’t end up throwing several really awful interceptions that get run back.

The score of that game interestingly influences oddsmakers a lot, even though for 3+ quarters the teams were even. This week, we see Detroit getting 4 points from a team whose star receiver is old as shit and Green Bay only getting 3 points against the team that has looked like one of the best in the NFL.

Crazy stuff.

Last Week: 9-6
Overall Season Results: 17-14-0

Sunday

KC (+5.5) at ATL
Just a really un-watchable matchup. Atlanta should have an easy time running the ball.
Pick: ATL

OAK (+9) at BUF
A bit weary of McFadden/Bush going off, but I’ll take Buffalo for the third straight week.
Pick: BUF

HOU (+4.5) at TEN
With VY, Tennessee was always playing to the level of its opponent. Collins seems less likely to make ridiculous mistakes. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Pick: TEN

CIN (+13) at NYG
Just feels like too many points. After all, that NYG-STL game was not quite as lopsided as it ended up.
Pick: CIN

ARI (+3) at WAS
Campbell and Warner both looked really good last week, but one of them was playing the Miami Dolphins.
Pick: WAS

MIA (+12.5) at NWE
Miami’s whole defense is pretty porous. New England should be able to run this week. And another practice week for Cassel to get in tune with the receivers.
Pick: NWE

TB (+3) at CHI
I just don’t think Tampa’s going to be able to run and I don’t see how Griese can win this game for them.
Pick: CHI

CAR (+3.5) at MIN
Plugging in Gus Frerotte can’t suddenly make you a favorite, can it? Steve Smith is back, to boot.
Pick: CAR

STL (+9.5) at SEA
Oddsmakers keep loving Seattle, but they still don’t have any receivers.
Pick: STL

DET (+4) at SFO
Things went horribly for SF last week and they still came out on top. Niners run D isn’t looking great, but Detroit hasn’t been great on the ground anyway.
Pick: SFO

NO (+5) at DEN
Cutler looks like he’s taking that leap, and New Orleans hasn’t played anyone this good yet.
Pick: DEN

PIT (+3.5) at PHI
Fantastic matchup, if I wasn’t going to the Niners game, I’d absolutely find a place to watch this. I do think Pittsburgh’ll be able to run the ball and control the clock.
Pick: PIT

JAX (+5) at IND
I’d really like to take the points, but I think the offensive line of JAX is just too beaten up to take advantage of Sanders being out.
Pick: IND

CLE (+2) at BAL
I think this is the week Cleveland gets back on track. They played well defensively last week, so should be able to hold Flacco and company down.
Pick: CLE

DAL (-3) at GB
Philly played fantastic last week… and ended up losing. Green Bay doesn’t feel nearly as good.
Pick: DAL

Monday

NYJ (+9) at SD
Rule No. 1: If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you take that opportunity.
Pick: NYJ

Whew! So that was Week 1. After spending some time scouring through picks and hemming and hawwing, I ended up… 8-8.

That’s right, .500. Theoretically, I could have thrown darts and ended up with the same results – not exactly a stellar start to my season. If you extend that out to an entire season, I just lost money – serious money. Going .500 against Vegas is exactly what they want. They make a living on picking a spread so that people are split 50-50 on the bet. They like people going .500. They will take that all day.

Last week was largely an unpredictable set of games. Week 1 is generally like that. Of course, football in general is a sport with an incredible amount of variance. Small, individual plays make up a huge swing in results (due to the low number of scoring plays). Take these examples:

• Washington had a last-minute drive that easily could have swung the spread the other way.
• Pennington threw a ball into the Jets endzone for an interception on one of the last plays of the game. Miami still had downs if it was an incomplete pass.
• Tom Brady’s knee got taken out in the greatest moment for Sports Karma Believers all over the world.
• Jeff Garcia threw an interception on the would-be game-winning drive to end the game

And that’s just off the top of my head. If any of those individual plays went differently, you could almost bet on a complete swing of the win/loss against the spread. In other words, wild swings are the rule in picking NFL games.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall Season Results: 8-8-0

(One side note, I don’t EVER remember picking this many road teams in a week. Makes me a bit nervous.)

Week 2 Picks

Sunday

OAK (+3.5) at KC
When your head coach is distancing himself from his own defense, you could lose to a team as shitty/young as KC.
Pick: KC

TEN (+1.5) at CIN
After watching Cincinnati’s atrocious offensive line, it’s hard to really bet on them, especially against the Titans D.
Pick: TEN

IND (-2) at MIN
Indy and Peyton looked bad on Sunday, but I’d put that more on the solid Chicago secondary. Minnesota? 28th in pass defense last season.
Pick: IND

NO (PK) at WAS
Washington looked pretty poor last week and it seemed like NO may have figured out how to use Bush effectively.
Pick: NO

GB (-3) at DET
I’ve reversed field on Rodgers – he looked great on Monday. Very under control, made lots of good throws. I’m paying the “home underdog in division” philosophy no mind.
Pick: GB

CHI (+3) at Carolina
DeAngelo Williams looked like Jim Brown last Sunday, but he wasn’t facing the reinvigorated Bears D. I’m liking the Kyle Orton bandwagon.
Pick: CHI

NYG (-7) at STL
St. Louis looked really embarrassing on Sunday – no other way to say it. I think I’d pick NYG at -17.
Pick: NYG

BUF (+5.5) at JAX
Jacksonville’s down two offensive linemen and they still have no dependable receivers. I’ll (surprisingly) take the points.
Pick: BUF

ATL (+7.5) at TB
That is a lot of points to give a team that just ran for 300+ yards, even if it was against DET.
Pick: ATL

SFO (+7) at SEA
Seattle’s missing its top four WR’s and it’s top running back, so I’ll pick us one more time.
Pick: SFO

MIA (+7.0) at ARI
Kurt Warner is 35-2 lifetime when his wire-haired man-goblin wife isn’t in the stands*
Pick: ARI

NWE (+1.5) at NYJ
This seems like a good spot for NWE to get bushwhacked, but the Jets barely beat the Dolphins last week.
Pick: NWE

SD (-1.5) at DEN
I can’t believe I picked SD last week. Back in the day, I always had one golden rule: “If you have an opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you should always take that opportunity.”
Pick: DEN

PIT (-6) at CLE
Pittsburgh looked like the best AFC team last week. Cleveland looked “not ready for primetime.”
Pick: PIT

Monday

BAL (+4.5) at HOU (moved from Sunday)
I did a double-take when I read this line. I don’t think I saw anything from Houston last week that looked decent.
Pick: BAL

PHI (+7) at DAL
Two of the best-looking teams last weekend, but one of them was playing STL.
Pick: DAL

*=I made that up

2 comments

So every year, I spend an inordinate amount of time watching and commenting on NFL games. Like most NFL fans, I think (probably incorrectly) that I can do a better job picking winners and losers than the Vegas sportsbooks can.

Of course, the whole reason those sportsbooks continue to exist is that generally speaking the vast betting public does NOT do a better job picking winners and losers. In fact, it’s an incredibly lucrative business because for the general public to even break even, it needs to pick correctly 11/21 times.

Anyhow, this season I’ve decided to sack up and actually see how I do against the spread, in public. All season, I’ll post my weekly picks against a well-known Vegas sportsbook (MGM Mirage). I’ll pull the current point spreads a couple of days before the games start from vegasinsider.com, a fairly reputable site for such things. And then, every week, you can come back and see how I did (and laugh at me).

Here’s Week 1:

Thursday

WAS (+4) at NYG
Return to glory for the Super Bowl champs? No Osi, no problem.
Pick: NYG

Sunday

DET (-3) at ATL
Rookie QB starting in his first NFL game? There’s no way I’m picking that.
Pick: DET

SEA (+1) at BUF
I like the Buffalo Bills as a trendy pick for the Playoffs. I also love Trent Edwards.
Pick: BUF

NYJ (-3) at MIA
Game 1 of Brett Favre Era 2.0, but I’m not believing it.
Pick: MIA

KC (+16) at NE
No comment.
Pick: NE

TB (+3) at NO
Even though Jeff Garcia single-handedly ruined a Vegas weekend for me last year…
Pick: TB

STL (+7.5) at PHI
I like Philly this year, even against my old roommate.
Pick: PHI

HOU (+6.5) at PIT
Not really buying the Texans as a sleeper.
Pick: PIT

JAX (-3) at TEN
On the road for Jacksonville. Plus Jeff Fisher hates the Jaguars. I’ll take the points.
Pick: TEN

CIN (-1.5) at BAL
I just don’t really trust Cincinnati at all. On the road, in a divisional game…
Pick: BAL

CAR (+9) at SD
Remember the old days when Carolina was always a trendy pick to get to the Super Bowl?
Pick: SD

ARI (-3) at SF
The JTO/Martz Era is in full-effect. I think we’re going to win outright.
Pick: SF

DAL (-4.5) at CLE
I don’t even know what the over is on this game, but I’d take it.
Pick: DAL

CHI (+9.5) at IND
I have inside sources (Un-Pseudo Stoops) that say the Bears might be awful this year.
Pick: IND

Monday

MIN (+2.5) at GB
I saw Aaron Rodgers with my own eyes a few years ago – he is not Brett Favre.
Pick: MIN

DEN (-3) at OAK
I ended up drafting Jay Cutler in every fantasy league I’m in. HUGE season coming up.
Pick: DEN